In its latest Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review, the Washington-based lender said Argentina expanded 4.4% in 2025 and is expected to grow 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. If met, the forecasts would mark a milestone: Argentina has not logged three consecutive years of GDP growth since 2008, the report said.

“The Argentine economy has emerged as the main upside exception, as stabilization and reforms have improved expectations and financial conditions,” the World Bank said, noting the country’s projections stand above the regional average growth rates it forecasts of 2.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.

Will Maloney, the World Bank’s chief economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, said Argentina’s growth projection is slightly lower than what the institution had expected months earlier, but he described the 3.6% estimate for 2026 as still strong by regional standards. Maloney also warned about an acceleration in inflation in recent months.

Maloney said concerns about external competition are understandable as the economy opens, arguing that greater openness can help companies become more efficient, but that the region has relatively few firms operating at the technological frontier. As a result, he said, many companies could struggle, while it remains too early to say which new firms might emerge to create jobs.

The World Bank credited Argentina’s fiscal consolidation under President Javier Milei with strengthening the overall program. The report cited efforts to rationalize public spending, cut administrative inefficiencies and retarget energy-price subsidies away from higher-income households as measures that helped anchor inflation expectations and compress sovereign risk.

The lender also described Argentina’s improved fiscal dynamics as another “exception” in a region marked by fiscal fragility and rising borrowing costs, and pointed to a decline in country risk and a “pro-growth agenda.” It cited the creation of the RIGI investment incentive regime and progress on trade deals, including with the United States.

Despite the upbeat growth outlook, the World Bank warned that Argentina faces “significant downside risks,” particularly tied to the external sector, debt and the flow of dollars. It highlighted substantial external financing needs in a context of negative net international reserves and limited access to international debt markets.

In its regional comparison, the World Bank said Argentina stands out among the largest economies, even as it projects higher growth this year for some smaller countries, including Guyana (16.3%), Paraguay (4.4%), Suriname (4.0%) and Panama (3.9%). Among other big economies, it forecast more modest growth for Brazil (1.6%), Colombia (2.2%), Mexico (1.3%), Chile (2.4%) and Peru (2.7%).

Looking at the broader region, the World Bank attributed Latin America’s relatively slow growth to three main factors: high borrowing costs linked to fiscal capacity constraints, weak external demand and inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical uncertainty, which it said weigh on private investment and job creation.

The report also highlighted what it called structural opportunities in Latin America, including the region’s share of global lithium reserves, copper resources and a relatively clean energy matrix, alongside a reform push gaining momentum in several countries. It urged governments to advance industrial and sector policies that encourage growth and emphasized restoring business confidence, unlocking private investment and boosting productivity.

The World Bank said the policy mix it recommends includes investment in education, technical training and management development to narrow skills gaps; expanding access to financing so firms can take risks; strengthening institutional capacity to design policies that can identify market failures; and deepening trade integration to lift competitiveness. In that context, it pointed to Argentina’s bilateral agreement with the United States and progress on the EU-Mercosur deal.

Original reporting by Por Esteban Lafuente for La Nación

According to Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, export value to the region’s 15 countries dropped from $1.2 billion in March 2025 to $882 million this year.

The decline hit agribusiness products especially hard. Pork exports fell 59%. Chicken sales, the main product Brazil sells to the Middle East, dropped about 22%. Soybean sales to the region declined 25%.

According to the ministry’s statistics director, Herlon Brandão, it is still too early to measure the full effects of the conflict on international trade.

“To state that the conflict is affecting trade flows, we need to wait a little longer,” Brandão said.

At the end of March, Brazil reached an agreement with Turkey for the transit and temporary storage of agribusiness goods exported to the Middle East and Central Asia. The effects, however, are expected to begin appearing only in April’s trade balance data.

Oil

The positive highlight in Brazil’s export results was oil. Crude oil exports rose 70.4% in value, reaching $4.7 billion. In volume terms, growth was 75.9%.

According to the government, it is still not possible to say that the increase is directly linked to the conflict, although the war has already affected about 20% of global oil trade and significantly pushed up barrel prices on the international market.

In the coming months, oil sales are expected to decline. To offset part of its diesel subsidies, the government introduced a 12% tax on Brazilian oil exports in mid-March.

Global impact

Beyond the Middle East, other important markets also reduced purchases of Brazilian products in March compared with the same month last year.

Exports to the United States fell 9.1%, while shipments to Canada declined 10% and sales to Argentina dropped 5.9%.

Sales to China, however, rose 17.8% in the month, reinforcing the Asian country’s role as Brazil’s main trading partner.

Results

In trade with the United States, Brazil posted a deficit in March, with exports of $2.8 billion and imports of $3.3 billion. With China, by contrast, the country recorded a surplus of $3.8 billion during the period.

Exports to the European Union rose 7.3%, while sales to Argentina declined, though Brazil still maintained a positive trade balance with the neighboring country.

The picture reflects the initial effects of the war on global trade, with uneven impacts across regions and products, especially in supply chains linked to energy and food.

Despite the isolated declines, Brazil posted a trade surplus of $6.4 billion in March. Total exports reached $31.7 billion, up 10%, while imports rose 20.1% to $25.2 billion.

Source: Agência Brasil

The leading product category shipped to India, accounting for 76.8% of the total, was the sugar-energy complex, at $696 million. It was followed by soybean oil, at $89 million, and vegetable-based chemical industry products, at $33 million.

“The excellence of Sao Paulo agribusiness reflects the depth and complementarity of India-Brazil bilateral trade, which reached $15.21 billion in 2025, with agriculture as the foundation of that relationship and the main driver of future growth, while the state of Sao Paulo becomes a clear example of that potential,” India’s Consul General, Hansraj Singh Verma, said.

For Sao Paulo Agriculture and Supply Secretary Geraldo Melo Filho, agribusiness exports have consolidated themselves through diversity and, above all, excellence, supporting a strategic expansion of trade agreements. “We have been expanding our presence in the international market with quality and competitive products, strengthening partnerships and opening new business opportunities. India plays an important role in this context and shows the growth potential of Sao Paulo exports in Asia,” he said.

Sao Paulo cotton exports to India rise sharply

Among agricultural products exported to India, cotton stood out, with exports surging 160%, rising from 5,000 tonnes to 15,000 tonnes in just one year.

The chart below shows the leading products exported to India through the Port of Santos, the largest port in São Paulo state and in Brazil. The data was obtained and processed by Datamar’s business intelligence team.

Top Exports to India | Jan-Feb 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Peter H. Burdzik, chief executive of VALIA Brazil, a company specializing in international commodity trade and consulting, said the state’s strength lies not only in production potential but also in its capacity to meet the requirements of foreign markets. “In recent years, Sao Paulo production has established itself as a reliable supplier to different markets. At the same time, this is a market that changes quickly, so prices and geopolitical issues end up directly influencing the pace of exports,” he said.

Marcella Wehrle, executive director of the Sao Paulo Cotton Producers Association, or APPA, said the technical expertise of the sector’s professionals is one of the product’s main differentiators. “The technical knowledge of Sao Paulo producers strengthens the competitiveness and sustainability of cotton farming. That combination positions Sao Paulo cotton as a benchmark for excellence in Brazil. These characteristics make Sao Paulo cotton highly competitive and valued by the textile industry,” she said.

Source: Sao Paulo Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply

The March figure came in below the median market estimate of a US$ 7.55 billion surplus, according to the Projeções Broadcast survey, following a positive balance of US$ 4.208 billion in February.

Market estimates for the period ranged from US$5.9 billion to US$8.5 billion.

In March, exports rose 10% compared to the same month in 2025, with a 1.1% increase in Agriculture, totaling US$ 8.256 billion; a 36.4% surge in Extractive Industries, reaching US$ 7.359 billion; and a 5.4% rise in Manufacturing, totaling US$ 15.822 billion.

Imports increased 20.1% in March year-on-year, with a 10.2% decline in Agriculture, totaling US$ 517 million; a 24.1% rise in Extractive Industries, reaching US$ 1.171 billion; and a 20.8% expansion in Manufacturing, totaling US$ 23.347 billion.

Year-to-Date

According to Secex, Brazil’s trade balance posted a surplus of US$ 14.175 billion in the year through March. This result was achieved with exports of US$ 82.338 billion and imports of US$ 68.163 billion, representing a 47.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025.

In the cumulative total for 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, exports grew 7.1%, with a 2.4% increase in Agriculture (US$ 17.205 billion), a 22.6% rise in Extractive Industries (US$ 20.816 billion), and a 2.8% gain in Manufacturing (US$ 43.864 billion).

Imports rose 1.3% from January to March 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, with a 19.9% drop in Agriculture (US$ 1.379 billion), a 7.4% decline in Extractive Industries (US$ 2.772 billion), and a 2.3% increase in Manufacturing (US$ 63.540 billion).

Source: Jornal de Brasília

The ‌conflict has disrupted global logistics networks, causing delivery delays, pushing up input price inflation and distorting headline growth measures.

Higher oil and energy prices led manufacturers to react and raise selling prices.

Headline PMI numbers – usually a sign of increased activity – were falsely elevated by the supply shock lengthening delivery ​times, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global.

That was the case for the headline euro zone ​reading. In Asia, many economies saw it fall, a sign surging fuel costs and heightening uncertainty ⁠from the Iran war were taking a toll.

Wednesday’s S&P Global euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.6 in ​March from February’s 50.8, higher than a preliminary estimate of 51.4. A reading above 50.0 would normally indicate growth in activity.

“While ​the uptick in the headline index has been, at face value, somewhat surprising given the renewed energy shock in global markets – particularly as the flash release pointed to weaker services – the aggregate masks meaningful cross-country divergence,” said Mariana Monteiro at JP Morgan.

Germany and Italy recorded their strongest readings ​in 46 and 37 months respectively, while Spain was the only country in contraction territory. Greece posted the highest reading, ​followed by Ireland, while France’s manufacturing sector stagnated.

In Britain, outside the European Union, cost pressures soared and delivery delays – due to ships avoiding ‌the ⁠Strait of Hormuz – were the longest since mid-2022.

ASIAN STRAIN

The findings highlight the challenge policymakers face in Asia, a region that buys about 80% of the oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, making many countries vulnerable to the hit from the energy shock caused by the war – already, drivers in Manila are facing diesel prices that have tripled, while a jet-fuel squeeze, opens new tab looms ​in Vietnam and South Korea’s ​major cosmetics firms, opens new tab are searching ⁠far and wide for plastic resin.

China’s manufacturing sector expanded in March for a fourth straight month – albeit more slowly and as inflationary pressures and supply chain strains intensified, a private survey showed.

The ​RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in March from 52.1, missing analysts’ forecast ​of 51.6.

Manufacturing activity ⁠slowed in economies ranging from Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines, other PMIs showed, highlighting the pain the Middle East conflict was already inflicting on businesses.

Japanese factories also took a hit from the souring business mood and cost pressures, which hit a 19-month ⁠high.

Reporting byJonathan Cable and Leika Kihara for Reuters

Export value totaled $7.595 billion, the second-highest for the past 10 years and 7% above the year-earlier period, with shipments to more than 105 countries, the secretariat said.

Of 54 agro-industrial “complexes” analyzed — including primary products and their derivatives — 26 posted increases from 2025 and 12 recorded decade-high volumes. By contribution to volume, the biggest gains were in wheat (up 92%), barley (up 32%), peanuts (up 13%), sunflower (up 249%), fisheries and aquaculture (up 14%), forage crops (up 132%), sugar (up 43%), dairy products (up 19%), apiculture (up 60%), other oilseeds such as flax, sesame, jojoba and safflower (up 209%), sheep products (up 38%) and herbs and spices (up 30%), it said.

In January 2026, Argentina’s seaborne trade was dominated by peanut exports, with outbound shipments totaling 4,968 TEUs. This commodity saw an approximate 15% year-over-year (YoY) growth compared to the same month last year, according to Datamar container movement data.

The following provides a compilation of containerized peanut export data between January 2023 and January 2026:”

Peanut Exports | Argentina | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The secretariat highlighted 36 products that were not exported in 2025, including cotton yarns, goat meat, apricots, other dried fruits and nuts, dried pears, strawberry preparations, wild beans, safflower seeds, roasted malt, and pork bacon and fats.

Among products with the highest export value per tonne in 2026 were lemon essential oil at $29,718 per tonne, dietary supplements at $19,688, horses at $16,780, boneless fresh or chilled beef at $12,338, liquid eggs at $8,678, frozen crustaceans at $7,243 and frozen sheep meat cuts at $6,071, the secretariat said.

By volume, the main destinations were Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Algeria, Peru, Chile, Malaysia and Morocco, which together accounted for more than 55% of total exports, it said.

The secretariat said it is providing interactive maps and dashboards to track market openings since 2024, Argentina’s global positioning by product, and export trends by complex and destination.

Source: Argentina’s Agriculture, Livestock, and Fishing Secretariat 

According to official data, revenue from import taxes totaled R$7.17 billion in February this year—when part of the tax hike came into effect—compared to R$7.4 billion in the same month last year. The figures have been adjusted for inflation.

The controversial increase in import taxes on around 1,000 products was justified as a measure to protect the domestic industry. The move received strong negative backlash on social media.

According to the Federal Revenue Service, the drop in revenue is linked to a 1.24% decline in the value (volume) of imports and a 9.8% decrease in the average exchange rate.

In other words, with both a reduction in the quantity of imported goods and in their value in reais (due to a weaker dollar), tax revenue also declined—even with the higher tax rate.

The agency noted that only part of the import tax increase took effect in February, with the remainder implemented at the beginning of March.

When the measure was announced, the Ministry of Finance said it expected to raise an additional R$14 billion this year from the higher import tariffs.

On Tuesday, tax authorities confirmed that the final amount should come close to that figure.

Asked by journalists, Claudemir Malaquias, head of the Federal Revenue’s Center for Tax and Customs Studies, downplayed the decline in revenue. “We still have the whole year ahead of us,” he said.

Source: G1

According to Cepea, the increase was supported mainly by a 3.4% rise in export volumes, as the average annual price fell 0.4%.

Among the products that posted growth in shipped volumes in 2025 were beef and pork, pulp, soybeans, cotton and corn. In terms of prices, gains were seen in beef and pork, ethanol, coffee and soybean oil.

China, the European Union and the United States remained the main destinations for Brazilian agribusiness exports. Shipments to China continued to be heavily concentrated in the soy complex, while exports to the European Union were weighted more toward forest products, coffee, fruit and orange juice. The United States, meanwhile, remained especially relevant for wood products, orange juice, ethanol, coffee, fruit, pulp and beef.

Data from DataLiner’s trade partner database, part of Datamar’s data intelligence platform, show China as the main destination for Brazil’s containerized exports, with 40,275 TEUs, up 4%, while the United States ranks second with 20,885 TEUs, but down 34%.

According to Datamar, Brazil’s main exports to China in January 2026 included frozen beef (7,780 TEUs, up 4.8%), cotton (7,043 TEUs, up 79.5%), and chemical wood pulp (6,954 TEUs, up 47%).

The chart below uses data extracted from DataLiner to compare the volume of containers exported to Brazil’s two main trading partners since January 2023:

Exports to the U.S. and China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Despite the record performance in 2025, the start of 2026 has been surrounded by uncertainty for the sector. While Southern Hemisphere producers finish harvesting the summer crop and move forward with planting the new cycle, market participants are also tracking the effects of the conflict in the Middle East on global logistics and input costs.

According to Cepea, the escalation in tensions has already pushed oil prices higher and complicated logistics operations. The possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as one of the main concerns, as it is a strategic route for the international trade in energy and fertilizers. According to the research center, about 30% of fertilizers traded globally, especially nitrogen-based products, pass through the region.

In this environment, Brazilian companies in the fertilizer sector have been staying out of the market and avoiding publishing prices while waiting for greater clarity on the conflict’s developments, according to Cepea.

Iran, in turn, gained weight in purchases of Brazilian corn throughout 2025. Secex data show that the country was the main destination for the cereal last year, importing 9 million tonnes, nearly double the 4.33 million tonnes recorded in 2024. Even so, because Brazilian corn shipments usually gain momentum in the second half of the year, the market is for now monitoring the possible effects for the coming months.

In the case of chicken meat, the Middle East remains a strategic region for Brazil. In 2025, the bloc accounted for nearly 25% of Brazilian shipments of the protein. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia ranked first and third, respectively, among the leading destinations for Brazilian chicken exports.

Together, the two countries received more than 877,000 tonnes in 2025, equivalent to more than 12.6% of Brazil’s total export volume, according to data compiled by Cepea.

Source: Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea)

Argentina’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 2.1% in the October to December period compared to the ​same period of 2024, also just slightly ​under analysts’ 2.2% estimate and below the 2.6% ⁠logged a year earlier.

GDP for Latin America’s ​third-largest economy also grew 0.6% compared to the prior quarter ​in seasonally-adjusted terms, it said.

The data marks the second consecutive quarter of quarter-on-quarter growth and fifth of year-on-year expansion.

Annual ​GDP contracted 1.3% overall in 2024, according to ​INDEC data.

Through 2025, agriculture and farming, mining and quarrying and ‌financial ⁠services led growth, INDEC noted, while public administration, social and healthcare services, domestic sectors and fishing saw output decline.

Industry slowed in 2024 as the ​harsh austerity ​measures introduced ⁠by libertarian President Javier Milei to help combat inflation hit businesses, but ​output rebounded towards the end of ​that year ⁠and tracked positively throughout 2025.

Economists expect Argentina’s GDP to again rise in 2026. A latest survey ⁠by ​Argentina’s central bank found that ​analysts on average forecast 3.4% growth for this year.

Data compiled and processed by Datamar’s flagship platform, DataLiner, shows that outbound containerized trade surged by 31.4% in January 2026 compared to the same period last year. Conversely, inbound shipments saw an 8.5% year-over-year (YoY) decline. The following overview highlights the containerized import and export volumes recorded at Argentine ports, according to DataLiner statistics:

Container Exports and Imports | Argentina | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Adapted reporting by Hernan ​Nessi and Sarah Morland for Reuters

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad was approached this week by CNA, the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock, and ABPA, the Brazilian Animal Protein Association, to review the effects on their sectors and present a list of requests. The demands range from lower taxes on ocean freight to the creation of credit lines to support exports and prevent rising food production costs.

Last week, airlines had already approached the government to discuss the tax impact on jet fuel, known in Brazil as QAV. The signal is that QAV could be targeted by measures similar to those adopted for diesel, such as cuts to PIS and Cofins taxes, in addition to possible subsidies.

CNA’s main request is for the government to grant a 100% reduction in the rates of a levy charged on waterborne cargo transport, known as AFRMM, the Additional Freight Charge for the Renewal of the Merchant Marine.

That levy currently reaches 8% in most operations, but can climb to as much as 40% in specific cases. In practice, the AFRMM represents an additional cost embedded in ocean freight, making imports more expensive, especially agricultural inputs.

“The proposed measure is emergency and strategic in nature and is essential to mitigate the effects of external shocks on the Brazilian economy, particularly in a sector responsible for a significant share of GDP, exports, jobs and income generation,” CNA President Joao Martins da Silva Junior said in a letter sent directly to Haddad.

The AFRMM has a direct impact on fertilizer imports, an essential input for agricultural production and one for which Brazil depends heavily on overseas supply, with about 85% imported.

With the war, prices for those products have already started to rise. Urea, one of the main nitrogen fertilizers, has risen by about 35% since the conflict began, according to CNA. That increase raises agricultural production costs, which tend to be passed on to food prices.

ABPA, meanwhile, has outlined a set of proposals for financial support to exporting companies. The association said instability in the region has affected strategic shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, two of the most important logistics corridors for the global food trade.

As a result, international shipping lines have adopted preventive security measures, including route reorganizations and operational adjustments. That means higher freight, insurance and logistics costs.

“These changes are estimated to increase voyage times by between 10 and 15 days, while also raising operating costs related to freight, insurance, risk surcharges and refrigerated container management,” Ricardo Santin, president of ABPA, said in a letter sent to Haddad.

The association is calling for the creation or expansion of emergency working-capital credit lines, as well as longer maturities and more flexible financing terms.

ABPA said the problem is temporary and stems from external geopolitical factors, arguing that an emergency government response is needed to sustain the sector’s operations.

Abear, the Brazilian airline association, said it is “watching with great concern” the volatility in oil prices caused by international conflicts. “With fuel accounting for about 30% of airline costs, aviation fuel plays a central role in the economics of the sector. As a result, swings in oil prices tend to pressure operating costs, reducing service supply and harming public access to air transport,” it said.

The jet fuel situation is less severe than for regular diesel, however, because 80% of kerosene is produced domestically. “Brazil has the conditions to cushion the impact of external shocks on the aviation sector. In this regard, Abear has maintained dialogue with the federal government on the effects of rising oil prices on airline investments, the democratization of air transport and the country’s connectivity.”

Asked for comment, the Finance Ministry said it is “permanently monitoring developments in the international scenario, including the unfolding conflict in the Middle East and its potential impacts” on the Brazilian economy.

“The ministry is continuously monitoring relevant variables in order to assess any potential effects on Brazil. Accordingly, it stresses that any measures will be analyzed responsibly, in light of the evidence and always in compliance with current fiscal rules,” it said.

The Middle East accounts for more than 25% of Brazilian exports of chicken meat, eggs and other poultry products, categories in which Brazil is one of the world’s leading suppliers.

The following is a historical data compilation of monthly containerized poultry exports from Brazil to Saudi Arabia, recorded between January 2023 and January 2026. This information is sourced from Datamar statistics:

Poultry Exports to Saudi Arabia | Brazil | Jan 2022 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Transport delays mean longer gaps between producing, shipping, delivering and receiving payment for exports. That in turn requires more financial resources to sustain operations, a problem that hits small and medium-sized companies especially hard because they have less access to credit and a lower ability to absorb external shocks.

The Finance Ministry proposed that Brazil’s states exempt diesel imports from ICMS, the state value-added tax, with federal compensation covering 50% of the impact of the measure. The cost is estimated at 3 billion reais for the federal government and the same amount for the states, assuming the measure lasts for two months.

The exemption would run through May 31, with the aim of reducing barriers and ensuring supply to the domestic market, amid reports from some states of diesel shortages at filling stations. For that reason, the measure would apply only to fuel importers.

The proposal was presented by Executive Secretary Dario Durigan to state finance secretaries during a virtual meeting on Wednesday morning (March 18), after the federal government called the meeting, Folha first reported.

Oil prices surged on Thursday (March 19), with Brent crude, the global benchmark, hitting its highest level in more than a week and rising above $119 a barrel after Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East in response to Israel’s offensive against the South Pars gas field.

Prices for LNG, or liquefied natural gas, also surged on Thursday, with contracts traded in Europe jumping 35%.

Text by Andre Borges and Ricardo Della Coletta for Folha de S. Paulo