Brazilian agribusiness exports totaled $170 billion in 2025, of which about $25 billion went to the European Union. Bruno Capuzzi, a researcher at Insper Agro Global, estimates that $17 billion in products Brazil sold to Europe already enter tariff-free, as is the case with soybeans and green coffee. That leaves another $8 billion in agribusiness products that will benefit from the agreement, most of them through tariff reductions over four to 10 years. Of that total, about $700 million will be affected immediately by the EU-Mercosur tariff cuts, becoming duty-free as soon as the agreement begins.

In addition to soybean oil, products such as leather derivatives, vinegars, bone meal proteins and wines will also become tariff-free, Capuzzi said. Items such as soluble coffee, beef and chicken will see tariffs reduced gradually. The new rules will apply to all Mercosur countries, not only Brazil.

“We still do not know how demand will behave, but the potential increase in shipments could indeed translate into better margins for rural producers,” Capuzzi said.

Daniel Amaral, director of economics and regulatory affairs at the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, told Valor that soybean oil tariffs currently range from 3.2% to 9.6%, depending on the product’s use, industrial or food, and on its degree of processing, crude or refined. Soybean meal is already tariff-free.

“With the implementation of the agreement, tariffs on crude soybean oil will be eliminated, while duties on other types of oil will be reduced to 4%. This tariff relief represents a significant step forward for Brazilian product access to the European market,” he said.

The expectation is that the EU-Mercosur tariff cuts will also attract new investment across the soybean supply chain. Even so, Abiove estimates that the most significant gains will come over the longer term, rather than through any abrupt shift in export volumes this year.

The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, or Cecafé, said the agreement provides for annual tariff reductions on Brazilian soluble coffee, roasted coffee and roasted and ground coffee entering the European bloc until they reach zero within four years. That will allow Brazil to increase its competitiveness in the European Union and likely expand exports of those products, especially soluble coffee.

For soluble coffee, the agreement is particularly relevant because the EU is the second-largest buyer of the Brazilian product, behind only the United States, said Aguinaldo Lima, director of institutional relations at the Brazilian Soluble Coffee Industry Association. The tariff on soluble coffee shipments will fall from 7.20% in 2026 to zero in 2030.

At the same time, another factor supporting Brazilian coffee competitiveness, especially robusta, is the impact of the Middle East conflict on Vietnam, Brazil’s main competitor in the European market. “Routes for Vietnamese product bound for Europe may end up being altered by the war, which could favor Brazil,” Lima said.

Meat quotas

In the meat segment, once the agreement takes effect and the required quota licenses and certificates are in place, Mercosur will receive a tariff-free quota of 15,000 tonnes of bone-in chicken and 15,000 tonnes of boneless chicken, according to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association, or ABPA.

The group’s president, Ricardo Santin, said the duty-free quota will gradually increase over six years until it reaches 90,000 tonnes of bone-in chicken and 90,000 tonnes of boneless chicken. “We are still discussing among the countries how much of the quota Brazil will receive. Brazil tends to be the country that will benefit the most in volume,” Santin said. “The EU is a market with good pricing, and that helps company margins. What is still unclear is the size of the benefit.”

In the case of beef, the sector expects the agreement to lead to gradual and moderate growth of about 5% a year in Brazilian sales to Europe, according to Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association, or Abiec.

“The Mercosur-European Union agreement is positive for Brazilian beef, mainly because it improves access conditions to a market that pays better and focuses on higher value-added cuts, such as hindquarter cuts already exported to countries like Italy, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands,” he said.

On the Hilton quota, Perosa said removing the 20% tariff should increase competitiveness and make it easier to fill that volume in full. “As for the new 99,000-tonne quota, it will be divided among Mercosur countries on a phased basis over five years. Even so, it is important to stress that this does not automatically mean an increase in exports, because part of that volume is already traded today and will simply move under more favorable tariff conditions,” he added.

Source: Globo Rural

In addition to the drop in international green coffee prices from 2025 levels, the recovery in global demand is supporting Nestlé’s outlook for soluble coffee exports 2026. Geopolitics has also become a supportive factor. The United States, the main market for Brazilian soluble coffee, had included the product in its tariff dispute and imposed a 50% rate in July last year, but more recently reduced that rate to 10%.

With the market for soluble coffee now more resilient, the company expects to expand its share in the segment and ship more than 20,200 tonnes over the year. Those volumes include different soluble coffee formats, such as ready-to-consume sachets, jars and cans, as well as bulk product destined for filling at factories in the company’s other international operations.

The company says growth in soluble coffee exports 2026 is being driven by the gradual normalization of coffee prices and the recovery of international demand, factors expected to sustain export momentum throughout the year.

Coffee exports fall 31% in January, hurting revenue

Against that backdrop, Brazil is likely to consolidate its position as one of the main soluble coffee exporters within Nestlé’s global operations, adding value to a commodity that has traditionally been exported in raw form.

The advance is being led by the company’s Araras plant in Sao Paulo state, considered strategic to Nestlé’s global operations. The facility serves the domestic market and exports to 57 countries, with Argentina, Canada, Guatemala and Saudi Arabia standing out as the main destinations for Brazilian product.

“The Araras unit is one of Nescafé’s most competitive plants in the world, encompassing all cutting-edge technologies related to soluble coffee production. It has established itself as the main export hub for the finished product and one of the most relevant globally within Nestlé’s operations,” Marcelo Nascimento, vice president of supply chain at Nestlé Brasil, said in a statement sent to CNN Agro.

The industrial plant is also one of the focuses of Nestlé Brasil’s investment plan, which totals 1 billion reais through 2028. The site currently concentrates processing technologies aligned with changing global consumption trends, which increasingly use soluble coffee in iced beverages, protein drinks and coffee-flavored food products.

Nestlé told CNN Agro that the performance of soluble coffee reinforces Brazil’s role not only as a coffee producer, but also as a relevant industrial hub in the beverage’s global supply chain. The company sees the Araras plant as one of the most competitive assets in its industrial portfolio.

The following chart leverages intelligence from Datamar’s Business Intelligence team to track the historical progression of Brazilian instant coffee export volumes:

Instant Coffee Exports | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Fonte: DataLiner (clique aqui para solicitar uma demonstração)

Investment and technology

Among the highlights at the Sao Paulo unit is the use of artificial intelligence applied to production-process control, monitoring variables such as roasting, moisture and coffee color. The system allows real-time adjustments and predicts failures, increasing operating efficiency.

The plant also uses the internet of things, machine learning, big data and autonomous robotics, in addition to generative AI solutions for predictive analysis and trend monitoring.

Source: CNN Brasil

According to Cepea, the increase was supported mainly by a 3.4% rise in export volumes, as the average annual price fell 0.4%.

Among the products that posted growth in shipped volumes in 2025 were beef and pork, pulp, soybeans, cotton and corn. In terms of prices, gains were seen in beef and pork, ethanol, coffee and soybean oil.

China, the European Union and the United States remained the main destinations for Brazilian agribusiness exports. Shipments to China continued to be heavily concentrated in the soy complex, while exports to the European Union were weighted more toward forest products, coffee, fruit and orange juice. The United States, meanwhile, remained especially relevant for wood products, orange juice, ethanol, coffee, fruit, pulp and beef.

Data from DataLiner’s trade partner database, part of Datamar’s data intelligence platform, show China as the main destination for Brazil’s containerized exports, with 40,275 TEUs, up 4%, while the United States ranks second with 20,885 TEUs, but down 34%.

According to Datamar, Brazil’s main exports to China in January 2026 included frozen beef (7,780 TEUs, up 4.8%), cotton (7,043 TEUs, up 79.5%), and chemical wood pulp (6,954 TEUs, up 47%).

The chart below uses data extracted from DataLiner to compare the volume of containers exported to Brazil’s two main trading partners since January 2023:

Exports to the U.S. and China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Despite the record performance in 2025, the start of 2026 has been surrounded by uncertainty for the sector. While Southern Hemisphere producers finish harvesting the summer crop and move forward with planting the new cycle, market participants are also tracking the effects of the conflict in the Middle East on global logistics and input costs.

According to Cepea, the escalation in tensions has already pushed oil prices higher and complicated logistics operations. The possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as one of the main concerns, as it is a strategic route for the international trade in energy and fertilizers. According to the research center, about 30% of fertilizers traded globally, especially nitrogen-based products, pass through the region.

In this environment, Brazilian companies in the fertilizer sector have been staying out of the market and avoiding publishing prices while waiting for greater clarity on the conflict’s developments, according to Cepea.

Iran, in turn, gained weight in purchases of Brazilian corn throughout 2025. Secex data show that the country was the main destination for the cereal last year, importing 9 million tonnes, nearly double the 4.33 million tonnes recorded in 2024. Even so, because Brazilian corn shipments usually gain momentum in the second half of the year, the market is for now monitoring the possible effects for the coming months.

In the case of chicken meat, the Middle East remains a strategic region for Brazil. In 2025, the bloc accounted for nearly 25% of Brazilian shipments of the protein. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia ranked first and third, respectively, among the leading destinations for Brazilian chicken exports.

Together, the two countries received more than 877,000 tonnes in 2025, equivalent to more than 12.6% of Brazil’s total export volume, according to data compiled by Cepea.

Source: Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea)

Whether coffee will replicate cocoa’s downward price curve was a focus of discussions at last week’s annual convention of the National Coffee Association in Tampa, Florida.

“I would be shocked if it did not happen,” said Carley Garner, senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, ​a division of Zaner. “I do think coffee is the new cocoa,” she said.

Cocoa prices in New York hit a ​record high in December 2024 at over $12,000 per ton as poor weather in producing countries squeezed supplies. But ⁠just over a year later, cocoa plummeted more than 70% as consumers cut back on high-end chocolate and chocolate makers reduced packaging size, ​or reformulated candy bars with cheaper alternatives to cocoa.

Like cocoa, arabica coffee also rose as negative weather in the tropics hampered ​production. It hit a record high in February 2025 and stayed pricey as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs distorted coffee trade.

In terms of volume, Brazil recorded seaborne shipments totaling 7,794 containers of coffee in January alone, according to recent Datamar statistics. This figure represents a 40.3% year-on-year decline compared to the same month in 2025.

The following survey tracks monthly Brazilian coffee shipments recorded since January 2023:

Coffee Exports | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The expectation of a sharp recovery in production in top grower Brazil, however, led prices downward this year.

CUTTING COSTS

An NCA poll of 1,500 people in the U.S. ‌in ⁠January found that 61% of respondents took actions to cut spending on coffee. Some reduced visits to coffee shops and drank more at home, while others switched to cheaper brands. The number of coffee drinkers, however, did not fall, NCA said.

The industry also responded, said David Behrends, managing partner and head of trading at Sucafina SA, one of the world’s largest coffee merchants.

More expensive ​mild arabicas, such as Colombian and ​Central American coffees, have ⁠lost market share, he said, while cheaper robusta beans gained.

Coffee demand stalled in 2025, said Carlos Mera, chief coffee analyst for Dutch bank Rabobank, which saw no growth last year compared to ​a historical demand increase of 2.3% per year before the pandemic.

Mera said coffee’s recent price ​fall will eventually ⁠reach consumers and boost demand again. He expects a 2% increase in 2026.

Demand numbers show a sharp difference between coffee and cocoa, and might explain why some doubt coffee prices will decline like cocoa did.

An expected record Brazil coffee crop may not bring much price relief to ⁠the market, ​analysts said.

Farmers are well capitalized and will sell gradually, likely keeping some ​volumes to replenish their stocks, said Cleber Castro, a sales representative for dozens of farms in Brazil.

Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira for Reuters

In the first two months of the year, exports totaled 5.41 million bags, a decline of 27.29% compared with the same period last year. Export revenue in February reached $1.061 billion, down 14.7% year-on-year.

In January alone, Brazil recorded the seaborne shipment of 7,794 containers of coffee, according to newly released data from Datamar.

The following breakdown tracks the monthly outbound volumes of Brazilian coffee recorded since January 2023:

Coffee Exports | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Over the current marketing year, from July 2025 to February 2026, Brazilian coffee exports totaled 26.038 million bags, a decrease of 22.6% compared with the same period of the 2024/25 crop cycle. In value terms, however, exports rose 5.3% to $10.301 billion.

Germany was the main destination for Brazilian coffee in the first two months of the year, importing 786,000 bags, down 20% year-on-year. The United States ranked second with 655,000 bags, despite a sharper decline of 45% compared with the same period last year.

Italy followed with 568,000 bags, ahead of Belgium with 331,000 bags and Japan with 315,000 bags.

In February, shipments of arabica coffee totaled 2.068 million bags, a drop of 28.9% year-on-year, accounting for 78.9% of total exports.

Soluble coffee exports reached 320,000 bags, rising 13.8% and partially offsetting declines in other varieties. The segment accounted for 12% of Brazil’s coffee shipments.

Robusta coffee represented 8.6% of exports in the month, totaling 290,700 bags, down 28.9% from the same period of the previous crop cycle.

Exports of roasted and ground coffee fell 20.9% to 3,200 bags, representing 0.1% of total shipments.

The Port of Santos remained the main gateway for Brazilian coffee exports in the first two months of the year, handling 5.78 million bags, or 77.7% of the total.

The Rio de Janeiro port complex followed with 18% of shipments, equivalent to 1.336 million bags, while the Port of Paranaguá accounted for 1.1%, or about 84,000 bags.

Source: Globo Rural

The adjustment is unlikely to be linear. Price trends will depend on the pace at which Brazil’s new crop reaches the market, the positioning of investment funds in futures markets and political and currency stability in major producing countries.

The current landscape combines a softening physical market, changing export flows and demand that — despite recent inflationary pressure — remains resilient in key segments.

The most significant signal comes from the projected balance for the 2026/27 season, which is reshaping expectations formed during the recent period of scarcity.

Carlos Mera and Stephen Rannekleiv, analysts at Rabobank, say they continue to base their long-term outlook on “a much more comfortable balance for 2026/27, as increased Brazilian arabica production will translate into a significant global surplus,” a shift that is altering the outlook for investors and market participants.

Surplus outlook

The central projection for 2026/27 is driven by higher Brazilian production. According to Rabobank, global output could reach around 180 million bags for the first time, with an increase of 8 million bags year on year largely driven by Brazilian arabica.

Rainfall in several producing regions during 2026 has so far exceeded normal levels, reinforcing expectations for a larger crop.

StoneX shares a similar view. Analyst Fernando Maximiliano estimates that “Brazilian production will rise 13.5% to about 77 million bags,” with arabica output increasing from 36.5 million to 47.2 million bags, a gain of roughly 29%.

Under that scenario, the 2026 cycle would mark the first global coffee surplus in five years, following deficits between 2021 and 2024 and a balanced market in 2025.

Sucden Financial estimates a similar figure. Analysts Daria Efanova and Viktoria Kuszak project Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at about 72.5 million bags, including 47.5 million bags of arabica and 25 million bags of robusta.

That would push the global balance into a surplus of between 4.7 million and 5.3 million bags, assuming stable weather and adequate robusta supply.

However, the transition remains highly sensitive to climate conditions. In Brazil, regions such as southern Minas Gerais and Zona da Mata have experienced lower-than-expected rainfall and episodes of high temperatures. Recent years have also shown that the traditional biennial production cycle has become less predictable amid increasing climate variability.

Outside Brazil, additional production does little to change the global market’s reliance on the world’s largest producer. Sucden Financial notes that “Brazil remains the decisive driver of global balances,” while countries such as Colombia and Ethiopia add only marginal volumes.

In Colombia, climate pressure has already affected output. Germán Bahamón, head of the National Federation of Coffee Growers, said production in January fell 34%. Over the past 12 months, output totaled 13.2 million bags, an 8% decline.

Exports since the start of the coffee year in October have reached 4.2 million bags, down 10%, although total shipments over the past 12 months amounted to 12.89 million bags.

“Climate conditions, exchange rates and international price volatility continue to pressure Colombian coffee production, affecting the sector’s economic momentum at the end of 2025 and the start of 2026,” Bahamón said.

In January alone, Brazil recorded the seaborne shipment of 7,794 containers of coffee, according to newly released data from Datamar.

The following breakdown tracks the monthly outbound volumes of Brazilian coffee recorded since January 2023:

Coffee Exports | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Prices, funds and market dynamics

The anticipated shift in supply balances is already influencing market positioning. Rabobank notes that the market has moved into bearish territory after a sustained increase in coffee awaiting classification and strong export flows from Vietnam, Nicaragua and Honduras offset weaker Brazilian shipments early in the year.

According to the bank, “it is entirely possible that the pace of fund selling seen so far in 2026 has somewhat exaggerated the decline in prices, and a short-term rebound could occur,” although the broader structural trend still points to a downward trajectory.

Arabica coffee futures are currently trading at about 280 cents per pound, representing a year-to-date decline of 18.34%.

Bahamón said Colombia’s coffee sector has historically shown resilience.

“Even in challenging scenarios, the strength of its institutions, the discipline of its producers and the confidence of international markets remain the pillars supporting its global reputation,” he said.

Rabobank believes a return to a clear contango structure — when futures contracts for later delivery trade above near-term prices — is unlikely before December 2026, when larger volumes from Brazil’s new harvest begin arriving in destination markets.

Until then, the market is likely to go through a transition period in which expectations of future abundance coexist with still-constrained immediate availability.

For robusta coffee, the outlook carries additional nuances. Sucden Financial says the market for the variety “remains structurally tight at the start of 2026, although short-term supply flows have improved.”

Vietnam is expected to sell about 10 million bags from the new harvest, with roughly 16 million bags available for export in the coming months.

Demand for instant coffee and installed processing capacity in importing countries have helped sustain relative stability for robusta.

Speculative positioning reflects the shifting narrative. By mid-January, funds held a smaller net long position in arabica than the previous year, while gross short positions had increased by more than 10,000 contracts.

The risk of cross-liquidation across agricultural commodity markets adds a technical factor that could amplify price movements even when underlying fundamentals remain stable.

Demand remains resilient

On the demand side, consumption remains resilient, although with regional variations. In the United States, despite an 11.1% increase in retail prices for roasted and ground coffee in 2025, sales measured in dollars rose 10.1%, while volumes declined only 0.9%, indicating limited demand elasticity.

Rabobank notes that the U.S. market remained solid in 2025, supported by consumer trends related to health, energy and value-seeking behavior.

In Asia, China is gaining importance. Sucden Financial says the country is now among the ten largest importers of Brazilian coffee, with imports reaching about 1.1 million bags in 2025.

Per capita consumption remains well below that of mature markets, leaving room for expansion, though margins may be tighter for large retail chains.

Macroeconomic factors add further uncertainty. Sucden Financial says markets may be “overly optimistic” given the potential politicization of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the increasing risk of a weaker labor market.

The end of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term in May 2026 and the appointment process for a successor could increase volatility in interest rates and credit markets, while yield differentials between Brazil and the United States may influence the trajectory of Brazil’s currency.

On the trade front, the reversal of extraordinary 40% tariffs on Brazilian coffee in the United States removed a distortion that affected markets in 2025. However, the risk of new trade measures remains in an environment where tariffs are increasingly used as negotiating tools.

The stability of this front is crucial for exports to the world’s largest consumer market.

Overall, 2026 is shaping up as a turning point for the coffee market. If Brazil’s crop projections are realized and weather conditions remain favorable, the global market could shift from a cycle of scarcity to one of greater supply, putting downward pressure on prices as inventories rebuild.

The scale and pace of that adjustment will depend on producers’ selling discipline, fund activity and a macroeconomic environment that continues to amplify the market’s sensitivity to both climate events and political developments.

Source: Bloomberg Linea

“The situation was getting worse month after month in sales with what is Brazil’s largest instant coffee customer. Now we are entering a new level—whether the tariff is 10% or 15%—but one that puts all suppliers on equal footing,” the executive said.

In August last year, U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on several Brazilian products. Some of them were later overturned, but items such as instant coffee have remained taxed since then.

In cumulative 2025 figures, the United States remained the main destination for the sector’s exports, purchasing the equivalent of 558,740 bags, a 28.2% drop from the previous year, according to Abics data.

“During the period when the 50% tariff was applied, between August and December, the reduction was even more drastic: 40% compared with the same period of the previous year. This highlights the direct and immediate impact of the trade barrier on the competitiveness of Brazilian instant coffee,” Lima recalled.

Container throughput data from Datamar tells a similar story. Throughout 2025, Brazil exported 2,249 TEUs of coffee concentrates and related extracts to the U.S., representing a 15% year-over-year decline. The following chart provides a comparative analysis of monthly soluble coffee exports to the U.S., measured in TEUs, according to figures from the DataLiner platform.

Soluble Coffee Exports to the U.S. | Jan 2022 – Dec 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The news of the 15% rate, announced on Saturday (Feb. 21), still calls for caution, but is “extremely positive” in Abics’ view, as it gives Brazilian exporters a chance to try to recover buyers lost last year.

Overall, the sector shipped 3.688 million 60-kg bags abroad last year, a 10.6% decline from 2024.

According to the executive, Brazil has always been the world’s most competitive country in the instant coffee segment and is now being challenged by Vietnam, which is likely to overtake Brazil in production and export levels this year due to trade agreements that Brazil does not have.

“Vietnam has made extensive use of agreements, especially in Asia, where instant coffee is growing the fastest,” he said. “We also need to keep pressing for the Brazilian government to continue negotiating harmonious agreements with the United States so as not to harm our trade,” he added.

Source: Globo Rural

Brazil is the world’s biggest producer of arabica coffee, the milder-tasting type preferred by high-street coffee shops that have traditionally been willing to pay more, offsetting the impact of lower yields compared with canephora.

For now it is the second-largest producer of canephora coffees, a bolder variety used for espressos and instant coffee, but is rapidly catching up with Vietnam, the biggest canephora grower.

Espirito Santo state produces the overwhelming majority of Brazil’s canephora coffee, particularly conilon. However, since 2020, output from states such as Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais has significantly increased, according to data from Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency Conab.

COFFEE INDUSTRY EXPECTS TREND TO CONTINUE

The planting of canephora crops beyond their traditional borders has been driven by high prices, Ricardo Schneider, president of the coffee chamber of commerce of Minas Gerais, said in an interview.

“The scenario is favorable for this movement to keep happening,” Schneider said, citing increased demand for canephoras and available space for crops. Analysts say quality has improved, helping demand.

A year ago, canephora prices – traded as robusta – hit a record of $5,849 per metric ton. Prices have since retreated but remain elevated versus historic levels. Arabica, the more expensive bean, also traded at record prices last year and has similarly declined.

Though Minas Gerais is Brazil’s main arabica producer, canephora production in the state is expected to hit 602,200 60-kilogram (132.3 lb) bags in 2026, which would represent a 94% increase versus 2020, according to data from Conab.

NEIGHBORING RONDONIA STATE INSPIRES MATO GROSSO

Mato Grosso, one of Brazil’s largest farming states, which is known for its vast soybean and corn farms, is taking inspiration from its robusta-producing neighbor Rondonia in seeking to increase coffee production, agronomists told Reuters.

“On average, our productivity is 23 bags per hectare; production in Rondonia is 50 bags per hectare,” said Dalilhia Nazare dos Santos, an agronomist at the Mato Grosso State Company for Rural Research, Assistance and Extension (Empaer-MT). “Our objective is for our average to hit that point.”

Canephora production in Mato Grosso is forecast to reach 298,700 bags this year, according to Conab, up from 158,400 bags in 2020.

In Conab’s latest crop data, Ceara is grouped under “others” along with Acre and Para. Their combined output is expected to reach 118,700 bags in 2026, close to triple the 40,000 bags produced by the category – which has historically included some other states – in 2020.

Ceara is assessing potential opportunities to grow both conilon and robusta Amazonica, a variety famously grown in Rondonia, said Silvio Carlos Ribeiro Vieira Lima, executive secretary for agribusiness at the state’s department of economic development.

Source: Reuters

Brazil shipped 2.78 million 60-kg bags during the month, down from January last year. Export revenue fell 11.7% to $1.175 billion.

“We are seeing a scenario in which producers remain well-capitalized due to favorable prices in recent years, arabica stocks are limited during the inter-harvest period, and conilon and robusta coffees are largely being directed to the domestic market,” said Cecafé President Márcio Ferreira.

“This context has led to a sharp reduction in volumes negotiated with foreign buyers and should persist until the arrival of the next harvest,” he added.

According to Cecafé, as the new arabica crop begins to enter the market from May onward, exports could recover, bringing Brazil back into closer alignment with key competitors. Until then, shipment volumes are expected to remain tight, reflecting limited competitiveness, particularly for arabica compared with rival origins.

In the current crop year, from July 2025 through January 2026, Brazil exported 23.406 million bags, down 22.5% from the same period in the 2024/25 season. In value terms, however, revenue rose 8.1% to $9.235 billion.

Breakdown by Variety

Arabica shipments totaled 2.347 million bags in January, a 29.1% drop year on year, accounting for 84.4% of total exports.

Soluble coffee exports reached 249,148 bags, down 32%, representing 9% of total shipments.

Exports of canephora coffees (conilon and robusta) fell 45.6% to 181,559 bags, equivalent to 6.5% of total exports.

Shipments of roasted and ground coffee declined 53.8% to 2,317 bags, representing just 0.1% of the total.

Specialty coffees accounted for 21.2% of total export volume in January, totaling 588,259 bags — down 41.9% from a year earlier.

Revenue from specialty coffees reached $272.7 million, or 23.2% of total export earnings, marking a 30.6% decline year on year. The average price for specialty coffee stood at $463.53 per bag.

Germany was the largest buyer of Brazilian specialty coffee in January, importing 78,352 bags, followed by the United States (70,048 bags), Italy (68,978), Belgium (63,072) and the Netherlands (58,265).

The Port of Santos remained the main gateway for Brazilian coffee exports in January, handling 2.252 million bags, or 81% of the total. It was followed by the Rio de Janeiro port complex, with 15.7% (435,958 bags), and the Port of Paranaguá, with 1.1% (31,244 bags).

Source: Globo Rural

The arrival was accompanied by Brazil’s agricultural attaché in Dhaka, Silvio Testasecca, and was handled by North End Coffee Roasters, a company that currently operates 15 coffee shops across Bangladesh and runs a production, distribution and training center in the capital.

Instant coffee remains the most widely consumed product in the country. With the entry and broader availability of Brazilian green coffee, consumption is expected to increase, as the tariff applied is the same as that levied on shipments from Singapore — the source of roughly 70% of Bangladesh’s coffee imports to date.

Bangladesh’s coffee shop sector includes global chains and local brands such as Gloria Jean’s, Crimson Cup, Barcode Café, Columbus Coffee Shop, Barista, Coffee World and Café São Paulo.

Over the past year, Bangladesh imported more than $2.7 billion in Brazilian agrifood products, with shipments led by the sugar and ethanol complex, soybeans, grains, and corn-based flours and preparations.

Source: Informativo dos Portos