After the resumption of regular exports to the United States following the rollback of tariff increases, companies in the sector had been preparing to expand processing units, build new plants and hatcheries, and upgrade technology. Those plans have now been put on hold, according to Eduardo Lobo, president of the Brazilian Association of Fish Industries, or Abipesca.

“In January and February, all business owners were ready to draw on any kind of reserves, make any sacrifice, and move ahead with new investments. Today, everyone is on hold because they do not know what will happen,” Lobo told Valor.

He said the pipeline of delayed investments totals around R$500 million. An election year and signs of a mild economic slowdown are also clouding the outlook for companies involved in Brazilian fish exports.

According to Lobo, the war has already hit a key destination. He said the Arab market, where tourism is a major driver of demand for Brazilian fish, has effectively collapsed. At the same time, the sector expects freight costs to rise by as much as 40% because of higher diesel prices. Air shipments are also becoming more expensive as aviation fuel costs climb.

The chart below shows the performance of Brazil’s frozen fish exports between January 2023 and February 2026. The data is available on Datamar’s DataLiner platform.

Frozen Fish Exports | Jan 2023 – Feb 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Those pressures are being felt across the supply chain for Brazilian fish exports. Diesel used by fishing vessels accounts for about 40% of the cost of fish purchased by processing companies. Brazil’s artisanal fishing fleet includes about 20,000 small vessels measuring between eight and 12 meters.

Lobo said Brazilian consumers could begin to feel the impact in retail prices from May, depending on how long the conflict lasts. So far, prices have remained stable during Lent and Holy Week, traditionally a peak consumption period for fish in Brazil.

“It will affect procurement costs and make our product more expensive. We could lose competitiveness in international markets for extractive products, and in the domestic market fish could become more expensive for consumers starting in May. That is very bad because it directly discourages consumption,” he said.

Lobo said inventories had been built up before the war and before logistics costs increased, helping shield prices through the end of April. “We moved in advance to avoid price impacts during Holy Week. We will now see the effects in the restocking cycle,” he said.

He also said the industry still faces the challenge of expanding domestic consumption. Because fish is not the cheapest protein on the market, some consumers who would like to eat more fish end up buying less as costs rise.

Even so, imported products such as salmon, hake, and cod are cheaper than they were during last year’s Lent, helped by a weaker dollar.

In foreign markets, Brazilian fish exports have already had to adjust. With the United States — historically the sector’s main destination — largely closed off in 2025, exporters were forced to find alternative markets. Asia increased its purchases, led by China, which accounted for 67% of Brazilian shipments last year. Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore also emerged as relevant destinations.

Australia became a new market, while some African countries maintained regular purchases. Middle East destinations such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar, however, have now become commercially unviable because of the war.

“These markets absorbed part of the production that used to go to the United States, although at lower prices. But it is the beginning of a new consumer market,” Lobo said.

Brazil lost about $100 million in fish product exports to the United States because of last year’s tariff hike. Now, with tariffs at 10%, the same level applied to competitors, the sector expects Brazilian fish exports to the U.S. to recover and reach $550 million.

Lobo said the industry has also been encouraged by the transfer of former Fisheries Minister André de Paula to the Agriculture Ministry, which he sees as giving the sector greater visibility inside the federal government.

The main near-term expectation, however, is an European Union audit in Brazil that the sector has been awaiting for seven years. If it moves forward, the review could reopen the bloc to Brazilian fish exports. Lobo said there is a real possibility of restoring trade ties and resuming shipments to the EU.

Source: Valor International

The shift comes amid new trade barriers and rising global competition. Even so, industry specialists see the current moment as one of opportunity. According to sector leaders, Brazil’s tilapia industry is entering a promising phase, marked by expansion and the need to adapt.

Despite the strong concentration in the U.S. market, recent figures point to resilience. Brazilian tilapia exports grew by about 2% last year, even after tariffs were introduced from August. The performance underscores the competitiveness of Brazilian product, while also highlighting the risks of relying too heavily on a single destination.

According to container movement data compiled by Datamar’s market intelligence team, Brazil exported 8 TEUs of tilapia in January 2026—comprising whole fish as well as frozen, fresh, or chilled fillets—while imports reached 112 TEUs.

The following provides a full breakdown of Brazilian tilapia import volumes (including whole fish and various cuts) since January 2023:”

Tilapia Imports | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

In that context, Latin American countries are taking on greater strategic importance. Mexico has emerged as one of the main targets. The country imports about 92,000 tonnes of tilapia per year, more than half the volume purchased by the United States. Even so, Brazil’s share of that market remains limited, pointing to room for expansion.

Other countries in the region, such as Colombia and Peru, are also seen as relevant opportunities. In addition to sizeable demand, geographic proximity could give Brazil a logistics advantage, especially against Asian competitors.

Industrial bottleneck limits expansion

Although national production is seen as robust, the main bottleneck in expanding Brazil’s international presence lies in the profile of the product it exports. At present, Brazil sells mostly fresh fillets, a higher value-added item, but one produced on a smaller scale.

In the global market, the picture is different. Consumption is dominated by frozen products, which are more affordable and supplied in large volumes by countries such as China and Vietnam. That gap has limited Brazil’s competitiveness in larger-scale markets.

The sector expects that regulatory adjustments and greater industrial efficiency will allow production of frozen fillets to expand, helping reposition the country in international trade. Specialists say changes on that front could generate faster results than gains in production, which require more time and investment.

In addition, trade barriers remain on the radar. The European market has been closed to Brazilian fish products since 2017, and reopening it depends on diplomatic negotiations and sanitary adjustments, factors that go beyond producers’ direct control.

Coordination and market intelligence gain importance

In a more competitive environment, coordination among industry players, associations and research centers is becoming increasingly important. Information sharing and trend identification have been key in guiding companies as they seek new markets.

The strategy includes not only international expansion, but also strengthening the domestic market. In that regard, native species such as tambaqui are emerging as promising alternatives for production diversification.

The outlook for the coming years is one of transformation. Market expansion, both inside and outside Brazil, is expected to define the next phase of the country’s tilapia industry, with greater international reach and rising pressure for competitiveness.

Source: Peixe BR, adapted by Feed & Food.

Even if a tariff of around 15% remains in place, Brazil would regain the ability to compete in the U.S. market under more balanced conditions, the industry group said.

Data provided by Datamar via the DataLiner platform reveals that Brazil exported 1,495 TEUs of seafood products—including frozen meats and processed preparations—to the U.S. in 2025. This volume represents a 10.5% decline compared to the 2024 year-end total.

The following chart offers a month-over-month comparison of outbound shipments of fish and seafood products to the U.S. from January 2022 through December 2025.

Fish & Seafood Exports | Jan 2022 – Dec 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Abipesca expects partial normalization of trade conditions to support renewed growth through 2026, with an estimated recovery of more than 5,000 jobs and a rebuilding of production capacity across the sector. Tilapia, Brazil’s leading seafood export to the United States, is expected to be among the main beneficiaries.

Association President Eduardo Lobo said tariffs of up to 50% imposed by the administration of then-President Donald Trump in 2025 severely undermined the competitiveness of Brazilian exports, leading to lost international contracts, lower output, reduced aquaculture activity and job cuts throughout the supply chain.

The Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday (20), which invalidated the use of IEEPA for broad-based tariffs, marks the beginning of a more favorable environment for Brazil’s seafood industry, Abipesca said, though uncertainties in global trade remain.

“It is a year that begins on a promising note for the sector, but always with responsibility and caution, and with the goal of achieving zero tariffs,” Lobo said.

He also highlighted efforts by Brazil’s Agriculture and Fisheries ministries to open new export markets during the period of heightened U.S. tariffs.

“Without that effort and the opening of new markets, the losses would have been even greater,” Lobo said.

Source: Jornal do Comércio 

In practice, however, the impact was smaller than initially expected. According to Manoel Pedroza, a researcher at Embrapa Fisheries and Aquaculture, based in Palmas, Tocantins, “the tariff hike only came into effect in August, which affected exports in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, down 28% and 34%, respectively, compared with 2024. Even so, cumulative exports for 2025 rose 2% in value due to the strong performance recorded between January and July.”

The leading export category, fresh or chilled fillets, posted a 12% increase in export value year on year, rising from $36.6 million in 2024 to $41.1 million in 2025. By contrast, frozen whole fish, the second most important category, saw a 27% drop in export value, falling from $17.6 million in 2024 to $12.9 million in 2025. The other four product categories recorded smaller volumes. Even so, frozen fillets stood out, with export value jumping 245%, reaching $3 million in 2025.

Below is a year-over-year monthly comparison of Brazilian frozen fish exports in containers (Jan 2022 – Nov 2025). Data provided by Datamar’s DataLiner platform.

Frozen Fish Exports | | 2023 – 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Highlights

Pedroza pointed to the decline in Brazilian tilapia exports to the United States as the main highlight of last year. “This pushed companies to look for new markets, with shipments of tilapia to Canada standing out, up 108%, as well as the resumption of tilapia sales to Mexico,” he said. He added that “the growth in exports of frozen tilapia fillets, up 421%, was another highlight, indicating a possible strategy to access new markets focused on this product.”

The researcher also highlighted “imports of tilapia fillets from Vietnam, which reached $1.5 million (374 tonnes), making tilapia the third most imported farmed fish species in Brazil, after salmon and pangasius.” In terms of export destinations, the United States remained by far the leading market, accounting for 87% of Brazil’s fish exports in 2025, worth more than $52.1 million. This was well above shipments to Canada, the second-largest destination, which totalled less than $2.4 million last year.

These and other data are available free of charge in the Fish Farming Foreign Trade Bulletin, which can be accessed via the link provided. The newly published 24th edition covers 2025. The bulletin is released quarterly, with the Brazilian Association of Fish Farming (PeixeBR) as a partner in its preparation. The publication is produced under the BRS Aqua project, coordinated by Embrapa.

Looking ahead, Pedroza said that “if the U.S. tariff hike remains in place, it is likely that fish farming exports will decline compared with 2025. Although exporters are already seeking new markets, it is very difficult in the short term to find other importing countries capable of absorbing the same volume as the United States.”

According to him, “the European market would be an alternative, but there is still no concrete prospect for the reopening of Brazilian exports. The recent trade agreement signed between Mercosur and the European Union provides for the elimination of tariffs on fish exports to Europe, which will make Brazilian farmed fish products more competitive once exports resume.”

Source: Embrapa Fisheries and Aquaculture

Data show that shipments totalled 15,100 tonnes from January to December, an 8.5% drop compared with 2024, according to figures released by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea).

Brazil stood out as the strongest-performing market for Vietnam’s tra fish sector in 2025, recording year-on-year growth of 35% and accounting for about 8% of the country’s total export value. To Thi Tuong Lan, Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said the South American nation has become an increasingly important destination as demand continues to rise.

China remained the industry’s largest single market, retaining a share of roughly 27%. However, export growth to China came in below expectations, increasing by about 2.3% compared with the previous year, Lan noted.

Exports to markets covered by the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) also recorded robust growth. The 11-member bloc accounted for 17% of Vietnam’s tra fish exports, valued at around US$340 million, marking a strong 37% year-on-year increase.

Meanwhile, the United States made up approximately 15% of total exports, though shipments to the market declined by 3.3%. The European Union accounted for about 8% of exports, a share that has remained largely unchanged over the past three years, indicating stable but modest demand.

On the supply side, Vietnam’s tra fish output in 2025 is estimated at about 1.67 million tonnes. Industry representatives said continued efforts to diversify markets, improve product quality and strengthen value chains will be key to sustaining export growth in the coming year.

Source: International Business Times

The Department of the Fishery Industry conducted the certification (DIP/SNPI) in accordance with MPA Ordinance No. 75 of May 26, 2023, as amended by MPA Ordinance No. 340 of August 26, 2024. The processes began in the second half of 2025 and followed a rigorous technical procedure, with support from the National Fishery Industry Platform (PNIP).

During the initial stage, non-conformities were identified, leading the vessels to prepare action plans. The adjustments made were later verified through evidence submitted by the responsible technicians. The use of the PNIP application ensured greater speed and reliability during the initial on-site inspections conducted by the DIP/SNPI technical team.

After the pending issues were resolved, the MPA’s technical area reviewed the processes, approved the requests, and issued the certifications. With the update, the number of primary vessels authorized to join the export supply chain to the European Union and the United Kingdom increased from seven to ten.

According to José Luis Vargas, Director of the Department of the Fishery Industry, the new certifications reflect the production sector’s commitment to international requirements. “In 2026, Brazil will undergo an audit by the European Union, and only certified vessels will be able to supply fish products to that market. Discussions with the United Kingdom are ongoing, and we expect progress soon,” he said.

Vargas also highlighted that the MPA’s 2026 goal is to expand the number of authorized vessels. “The Ministry calls on the production sector to begin its certification agendas. It is essential that vessels hold the Official Certificate of Good Hygienic and Sanitary Practices on Board, as established by SAP-MAPA Ordinance No. 310 of 2020,” he concluded.

Source: Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture

There will be 32 containers in total, and the first was dispatched on November 6, with unloading scheduled for December 17 at the Port of Santos.

The authorization for imports, formalized by the Ministry of Agriculture in April through Decision Order No. 379, resumes a flow that had been suspended since 2024. The current shipment is part of commitments made between Lula and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh during the Expanded BRICS Summit, which involved the entry of Vietnamese tilapia, tra, and basa into Brazil and the expansion of Brazilian beef purchases by Vietnam.

Commenting on the operation, Ambassador Bui Van Nghi emphasized that the shipment reinforces economic cooperation and consolidates the Asian country as a supplier of agricultural and aquaculture products in Latin America.

However, the simultaneous inclusion of tilapia on the National List of Invasive Exotic Species raised concerns among representatives of the domestic aquaculture sector, who fear legal uncertainty and licensing obstacles. The Ministry of the Environment states that the classification is technical and does not interfere with commercial production.

The Vietnamese embassy also reported that it will continue supporting companies interested in expanding bilateral trade and introducing new South American products into the Vietnamese market.

Fonte: Pleno News

“We received confirmation that the EU will audit Brazil’s fish processing plants. With this, in the first months of 2026, we will have the long-awaited opportunity to reopen the European market for Brazilian fish,” Fávaro told journalists after the second day of the Conference of Agriculture Ministers of the Americas in Brasília.

The ministry’s technical team expects the EU visit to take place between May and June. Although the minister referred to inspections of processing plants, the mission will focus primarily on Brazil’s sanitary control system.

In addition, the EU informed Brazil that it will accept the pre-listing system for egg exports — meaning all Brazilian egg producers meeting sanitary standards will be eligible to export to Europe. Eleven days earlier, the EU had already approved the pre-listing model for Brazilian poultry meat exports.

Fávaro also announced that Suriname has opened its market to Brazilian pork. “Next week we will formalize the protocol and make the market opening official,” he said.

Source: Globo Rural

In September, C.Vale shipped 378 tonnes, a 44% reduction from 670.4 tonnes in the same month of 2024. Revenue fell 49%: from US$3.31 million to US$1.69 million.

“The cooperative decided to maintain its partnership with the American importer, believing in a negotiated solution for the tariffs,” says Aguiar.

Since January, C.Vale has exported 4,355 tonnes to the Americans, between frozen and fresh fillets. In 2024, shipments totaled 6.9 thousand tonnes, up from 4 thousand the previous year.

Despite the tariff hike, production of 230 thousand fillets per day at the two processing plants in Palotina and Nova Prata do Sul has not been reduced. The volume not absorbed by the foreign market stayed in the domestic market. In addition to Paraná, the cooperative’s tilapia is sold in 17 states.

Last year, C.Vale became the first cooperative in Brazil to obtain ASC (Aquaculture Stewardship Council) certification for tilapia production in excavated ponds, thereby enhancing its export credentials. The cooperative now targets markets in Canada, Colombia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Reduction
Overall, tilapia processors report a drop of 20% to 80% in fish exports to the United States in September, the second month of the tariff’s enforcement.

Even with the 50% tax, the United States remains the main, and almost the only, destination for Brazilian tilapia exports, accounting for more than 90%. September data from Agrostat, of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (Mapa), confirm that the fall was severe.

There was a 56.87% reduction in volume compared to the same month in 2024. A total of 538.5 tonnes were shipped to the premium American market compared to 1,248.6 tonnes in September 2024. In revenue, the decrease was slightly smaller, 46.6%, closing at US$3.075 million.

In the July to September quarter, volume fell 29.17% and revenue fell 27.66%. On the other hand, considering the total shipments for the year, there was an increase of 23.64%, totaling 8,845.9 tonnes.

This is because exports to the U.S. of the main item in Brazil’s fish farming industry grew in the first half of the year and, amid the tariff threat, shipments accelerated in June and July. In 2024, Brazil exported 10.8 thousand tonnes, compared with 5.06 thousand tonnes in the previous year.

In recent years, companies have increased shipments of fresh fillets to the U.S. by air and have also begun exporting frozen fillets by sea, driven by the higher quality of Brazilian product compared to other countries.

Industries
Juliano Kubitza, director of Fider, one of the largest exporters of tilapia fillets to the U.S., said that after the tariff hike, the company’s shipments fell 80%. There has been a small growth in exports to other countries, but on average, the company, which has a farm and processing plant in Rifaina, in São Paulo’s interior, is exporting half the previous volume.

Last year, it exported about 50% of its 9,600 tonnes of production. Now, the surplus has been redirected to the domestic market.

“Brazil used to export only 4% of its production. It’s an important tonnage, but not impossible to absorb in local markets with greater consumption stimulus. The sad part is being left out of a market as large and important as the American one.”

According to Kubitza, some of Fider’s U.S. clients have started buying tilapia from Colombia, paying more than they did for Brazilian fish before the tariff hike. “It’s very sad to see a market that we built with so much effort handed to the Colombians. And they don’t even have enough fish to meet demand, which has caused higher prices.”

Ramon Amaral, CEO of Brazilian Fish, from Santa Fé do Sul (SP), said the company continues to export tilapia to the United States, but the volume has already fallen by 20%. The company used to export an average of 70 tonnes of fresh tilapia fillets per month by air to Miami and occasionally shipped containers of frozen fillets.

“We’ve zeroed our margin and even worked on some shipments with a negative margin to keep the window open, the client active. Since we’re Brazilian, we never give up, but we’re praying for this tariff to end soon. Meanwhile, we’re exploring markets in China, Canada, and South America, trying to find a way out.”

When the tariff was announced, Brazilian Fish had just invested R$100 million to increase the capacity of its two plants in Santa Fé from 60 tonnes per day to 100 tonnes, aiming to increase fillet exports to the U.S., which accounted for 18% to 20% of revenue.

To mitigate losses, Ramon reduced production and took advantage of the increased storage capacity for finished products, intending to keep frozen fillets for one or two years while the situation with the U.S. remains unresolved or until new markets are opened.

Fider, in turn, already had government authorization to invest in a new farm in the Pedregulho reservoir to double tilapia production, focusing on exports, which accounted for 50% of revenue. The plan has been suspended for now. In addition to fresh fillets for the U.S. by air, the company ships fish meal, skin, and scales to Asian countries.

Alternatives
The president of the Brazilian Fish Farming Association (Peixe BR), Francisco Medeiros, says that Brazilian tilapia exporters continue to seek alternatives to maintain contracts with American clients, even taking losses, as reported by Brazilian Fish and C.Vale.

According to him, Brazil has few opportunities in the global tilapia fillet market, which is dominated by China and Vietnam, countries that adopt industrial procedures banned in Brazil and thus can offer more competitive prices.

“What remains for us is the premium market of the United States and Canada, where consumers are willing to pay more for a quality product.”

Medeiros adds that Brazilian companies continue to work with partners in the United States to find ways to overcome the effects of the tariff hike.

“The sector’s position from the beginning was for the Brazilian government to go to the United States to negotiate, which did not happen, but we believe that this negotiation between the American government and Brazil should, at some point, evolve toward reducing this tax and making our operation competitive again.”

Source: Globo Rural