According to the Valor Internacional portal, the U.S. government has signaled a possible tariff rate of 15 per cent. However, the absence of an official definition and ongoing changes in trade announcements have created uncertainty for exporters planning shipments.

For Brazilian fruit suppliers, competitiveness remains a concern, particularly in comparison with countries that export to the U.S. under lower tariff barriers. Even if tariff rates are reduced compared with previous scenarios, exporters report that trade conditions remain challenging, particularly for products affected by logistics and tax costs.

Brazil exports a range of fruits to the U.S., including mangoes, grapes, papayas, melons, and watermelons. The effects of tariff changes may vary depending on the product and the cost structure of each supply chain.

Data from the DataLiner platform, developed and operated by Datamar, shows that Brazil exported 4,513 TEUs of fruit to the United States throughout 2025. Compared to the same period the previous year, this figure represents a 19% year-on-year (YoY) decline in handled volume.

In January 2026, fruit exports to the U.S. totaled 62 TEUs. The following provides an overview of monthly volumes recorded for fruit exports to the United States:

Fruit Exports to the US | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Exporters report that the lack of clarity regarding the final tariff level is affecting decision-making across the export chain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant as the peak of Brazilian fruit shipments normally occurs during the second half of the year.

During this period, exporters must secure international contracts and coordinate logistics schedules in advance. The absence of clear trade conditions complicates these preparations.

Under the current situation, exporters are approaching foreign negotiations cautiously. Some companies are prioritising sales in the domestic market, while others are considering redirecting export volumes to alternative destinations until there is greater clarity regarding the rules governing access to the U.S. market.

Source: HFBrasil

At current prices of around $3,000 per metric ton , farmers and analysts told Reuters they expected around half the projects in Brazil to ‌grow cocoa on an industrial scale could be canceled.

The projects, centered in Northeastern Brazil, would have added at least some 75,000 hectares of growing area, according to an estimate by supply chain services provider Czarnikow, enough to supply nearly 5% of the global demand for cocoa.

“I think Brazil expansion plans have had a massive cold shower,” said Paulo Torres, a London-based cocoa industry advisor and cocoa farmer in Brazil’s Bahia state. Torres himself canceled a plan for an additional 30 hectares of cocoa at his farm ​in Bahia.

Current prices do not cover the investment or production costs of new fields, making the Brazilian projects unfeasible, he said.

The farmers and investors that planned the giant cocoa farms in Brazil, backed ​by big players in the industry such as Cargill and Barry Callebaut saw them as a solution to years of supply shortages that led to skyrocketing prices.

The planned farms would ⁠have provided an alternative to the main growing region in West Africa. Ghana and Ivory Coast produce nearly 50% of global cocoa, which has left the market vulnerable to production problems there.

Unfavorable weather, illegal mining and diseases ​reduced West Africa production in 2023 and 2024, causing prices to spike from an average $2,500 per ton to more than $11,000 per ton and generating panic in the industry.

Cocoa traders scrambled to source beans. Smuggling rose sharply in Africa ​with people bypassing official government buying to sell across the border at higher prices. The chocolate industry raised prices to offset spiraling production costs.

African production has since recovered, and other geographies such as Ecuador have increased production. At the same time, consumers have cut back on buying expensive chocolate, and small cocoa farmers in Brazil have not been making money. A group of them last month blocked a road leading to the Ilheus port in Bahia, setting old tires on fire, to protest ​the arrival of imported cocoa from Africa.

After that, Brazil’s food supply agency Conab suspended any imports of cocoa from Ivory Coast.

Weight-loss drugs have further curbed demand, and the industry has reduced package sizes and turned to non-cocoa ingredients, ​such as artificially flavored palm oil butter, hitting demand for the beans and exacerbating the cocoa price crash.

DELAYS, REEVALUATIONS

Moises Schmidt, one of the biggest cocoa farmers in Northeast Brazil, said the current price of cocoa would not cover the investments in irrigation ‌and machines for ⁠crop care and post-harvest processing typical of the region’s farms.

“If the market remains below $5,000 per ton, more than 50% of the projects are gone,” he said.

Schmidt had expected to oversee as much as 10,000 hectares (24,710 acres) of cocoa plantations, roughly the size of Manhattan. He declined to comment on what the price crash means for his own plans.

Two sources, one a large farmer in the region and the other an executive at an agricultural equipment supplier, told Reuters that a large project by Switzerland-based investment company NewAg Partners for up to 22,000 acres (8,900 hectares) of cocoa fields, had been suspended.

“At this stage we prefer not to comment,” said NewAg chief executive Detlef ​Schoen.

There are other initiatives in the area whose future ​is uncertain.

Copa Investimentos, a Sao Paulo-based asset manager ⁠with investments in agriculture and forestry, was also planning an industrial-scale cocoa farm, but one of its partners, Apolonio Sales, said it is now “evaluating” the investment.

Sales said he visited some of the new cocoa farms and also held talks with cocoa traders and chocolate companies, but the company has not yet reached a conclusion ​about whether to go forward.

SLOW-PACED GROWTH

Brazil cocoa production could still grow, experts said, but at a much slower rate, mostly as a diversification strategy in farms ​where the trees would grow ⁠alongside other crops.

The big Brazilian farms, however, had intended to deliver quick and massive production growth. An additional area of 75,000 hectares of irrigated fields could deliver 225,000 tons of beans in four years, or 4.5% of global production.

“If some big farm had plans for 400, 500 hectares, now it will do 80 or 100, only to start learning about the crop,” said Emerson Silva, a sales executive at irrigation equipment maker Netafim.

Data from Datamar indicates a surging market for Brazilian cocoa bean exports. Outbound volumes in January 2026 represent a 100% year-over-year increase. Despite this growth, Brazil’s most significant exports in this sector remain cocoa powder (holding a 34% market share) and cocoa butter and oils (31%).

The following provides a historical recap of Brazilian cocoa bean shipments since January 2023. These figures are sourced from Datamar’s DataLiner platform:

Cocoa Bean Exports | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Brazilian co-op Cooabriel, which announced a cocoa initiative ⁠with Cargill last ​year, said it would continue developing its small-scale project.

Projects from Sao Paulo’s state government, which include using cocoa trees to reforest ​degraded parts of farms, will also go ahead, said the coordinator Ricardo Pereira.

“In some areas, we already have seedlings almost ready to go into the field,” he said, adding that as with any commodity market, cocoa prices would eventually rebound.

Source: Reuters

The service, which operates during the fruit export season, channels shipments from Argentina’s Alto Valle del Río Negro through Montevideo, mainly pears and apples bound for overseas markets. Cargo is moved from the Patagonian port to Montevideo, where it connects with longer-haul ocean services within the carrier’s global network.

The following breakdown highlights the monthly outbound volumes (measured in TEUs) of Argentine fruit exports, according to Datamar statistics:

Fruit Exports | Argentina | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Exportação de Frutas | Argentina | Jan 2023 - Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The route operates on a weekly shuttle basis between the two ports and uses vessels equipped to handle refrigerated containers, a requirement for maintaining the cold chain for perishable goods.

The resumption of the service underscores Montevideo’s role as a cargo consolidation and redistribution point in the South Atlantic, helping regional exports reach international shipping routes more efficiently.

The operation also highlights Uruguay’s ability to integrate into regional supply chains by providing the port infrastructure and services needed to support foreign trade and strengthen maritime connectivity in the region.

Source: ANP

According to analysts at the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea), growers in the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará brought forward harvests ahead of the peak rainy season from January to March, helping boost export volumes in the first half of the season.

The main destinations for Brazilian melons during the period were the Netherlands, which accounted for 43.34% of shipments, followed by Spain with 24.88%, the United Kingdom with 23.16%, and Canada with 3.27%. The same markets were also the leading buyers during the equivalent period of the previous season.

The following chart details the monthly outbound volumes of Brazilian melons, recorded since January 2023. The figures are sourced from Datamar’s DataLiner platform:

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Rio Grande do Norte

Rio Grande do Norte is currently the second-largest fruit-exporting state in Brazil. According to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), the state exported $269.5 million worth of fruit in 2025, trailing only Pernambuco and representing a 33% increase from 2024, when it ranked third behind Pernambuco and Bahia.

Expectations for the 2025/26 season are even higher, with the state potentially exporting up to 300,000 tons of fresh fruit through the Port of Natal — double the volume shipped in the previous season. If confirmed, the figure would consolidate the terminal as Brazil’s leading hub for fruit exports.

The increase is supported by major investments in port infrastructure. In August 2025, during the Expofruit trade fair in Mossoró, Governor Fátima Bezerra announced that the federal government would allocate 130 million reais ($26 million) to upgrade the port.

“These investments were requested mainly by the fruit sector in Mossoró and Baraúna. The works are already underway, including dredging, bridge protections, quay reinforcements and warehouse upgrades, as well as the installation of a photovoltaic plant,” the governor said at the time. “The roughly 130 million reais in investments will improve logistics and navigational capacity, allowing us to expand exports, particularly in the fruit sector. Currently part of this production is shipped through the ports of Pecém, Suape and even Cabedelo,” she added.

In an interview with newspaper Tribuna do Norte, Carlo Porro, chief executive of Agrícola Famosa — the state’s largest fruit exporter — highlighted the advantages of using a dedicated port and vessel for shipments.

“The advantages of having a dedicated port and, above all, a dedicated vessel are fruit quality and transit time. The ship does not call at other ports, so the fruit arrives faster and in ideal condition. That makes a big difference for quality,” he said.

The Port of Natal currently handles around 10,000 tons of fruit per week, mainly melons. However, the Rio Grande do Norte Port Authority (Codern) is seeking to expand cargo diversity at the terminal, including the potential export of iron ore, sugar and live cattle in the coming years. Iron ore shipments could begin as early as 2027.

New markets

Another priority for the sector is expanding sales beyond Europe, which currently absorbs around 90% of fruit exports from Rio Grande do Norte.

“We ship nearly 90% of all fruit produced in Rio Grande do Norte to the European Union, a market of about 500 million people,” said Fábio Queiroga, president of COEX/RN, the state fruit exporters association. “Now we are also entering China, a country with 1.5 billion people. We were in Shanghai earlier this year to strengthen relationships with major importers, and we even brought a Chinese importer to Expofruit to develop these negotiations. Despite the distance and logistical challenges, we are gradually expanding this possibility,” he said.

For five years, melons from the Mossoró region were the only Brazilian fruit allowed in the Chinese market. Recently, grapes from Petrolina were also authorized. Each new product accepted by China increases the chances of achieving sufficient export volumes to support dedicated shipping lines for fruit, Queiroga added.

Competition

Despite the positive outlook, stronger international competition — particularly from Central America — could limit Brazilian shipments during the remainder of the season, from February to July.

According to industry publication Fresh Plaza, Central American exports have already begun and may increase due to expanded cultivation areas in parts of Costa Rica, alongside expectations of higher production and strong export volumes from Guatemala.

“The increase in exports from Central America, which expects a better harvest compared with previous years, could affect Brazilian shipments during the off-season from April to June, a period that has seen above-average volumes in the past two years,” Cepea researchers said.

Reporting by Guilherme Dorigatti for Notícias Agrícolas

Data available on Datamar’s DataLiner platform shows that Brazil exported 1,192 TEUs of bananas throughout 2025—a nearly 200% increase year-on-year. The following chart illustrates the historical export trends for bananas, according to DataLiner data:

Banana Exports | Jan 2022 – Dec 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

According to Comex Stat, Brazil exported roughly 6,000 tonnes of bananas in January 2026, down 6.3% from December. Export revenue (FOB) declined 13.7% over the same period, totaling USD 22.8 million. Hortifrúti/Cepea researchers note that the early months of the year are typically slower for exports, as fruit consumption eases during the holiday season and school vacations.

Shipments from Santa Catarina have also faced stiffer competition from Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay, whose fruit is often viewed as more competitive in terms of appearance, pricing and logistics. Despite improved quality, attractive prices and increased supply in Brazil, orchard recovery has progressed more slowly than expected following the longer and harsher winter of 2025.

In January, Uruguay accounted for 42% of Brazil’s banana exports, followed by Argentina (33.5%), the Netherlands (11.7%) and Spain (6.9%), according to Comex Stat.

Even with the month-on-month pullback, January exports were 118.3% higher than in the same month of 2025, underscoring the sector’s year-on-year gains. Portuguese outlet TRT Português reported that severe flooding recently affected around 40,000 hectares in northern Colombia, potentially curbing output in the coming months and opening additional space for Brazilian fruit.

February, however, may bring renewed headwinds. Harvests in Paraguay and Bolivia typically accelerate at this time of year, while Argentina — a key destination for Brazilian bananas — remains in its holiday period, which can dampen demand. Market participants expect exports to regain traction after Carnival, supported by projections of stronger domestic output in March.

Source: Hfbrasil.org.br and Comex Stat

The lower estimate — influenced by weather and disease factors, especially greening — will reduce Brazil’s expected juice supply. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of the commodity, the exporters’ association CitrusBR said.

“The two main reasons for the crop reduction are the decrease in fruit size due to lack of rain and the increase in the projected drop rate from 22% to 23%, caused by the growing severity of greening, the pace of the harvest, and weather conditions themselves,” Fundecitrus stated.

Even so, the crop in Brazil’s central citrus-producing region, which is home to processing industries, is expected to rise 27.7% compared with the previous harvest, which had been considered the second smallest in 37 years due to poor weather and the high incidence of greening — a disease with no cure that reduces orchard productivity.

“What this revised estimate shows is that dealing with weather issues is increasingly complicated. Even if a crop starts well, there is no guarantee it will develop and finish well,” said CitrusBR’s executive director, Ibiapaba Netto.

He noted that the crop shortfall compared with the initial estimate is 20 million boxes, something “quite significant because it changes the crop’s scale.”

Asked what this means for the industry in productive terms, he said the shift alters juice availability by somewhere between 65,000 and 70,000 tonnes, depending on industrial yield.

“What could help a bit would be a better industrial yield, which depends on weather… and there is no evidence that yield will offset this shortfall.”

“This ‘dries up’ product availability toward the end of the cycle…,” Netto added.

By mid-November, around 65% of the São Paulo and Minas Gerais crop had been harvested.

Prices decline
Despite the lower projection in Brazil, frozen concentrated orange juice futures in New York were down 1.7% in early afternoon trading, at US$1.54 per pound, but remain sharply lower after last year’s record high above US$5, when Brazilian orchards had a poor crop.

The surge to record price levels late last year weakened global demand, allowing ending stocks from the previous crop to recover by more than 25%, according to a September survey released by CitrusBR.

Despite falling prices this year — now at their lowest levels since 2022 — Brazilian orange juice exports fell 12.29% in the 2025/26 season (July to November) to 367,000 tonnes compared with the same period a year earlier.

The decline is driven mainly by demand in Europe, the former largest destination for Brazilian exports, which the United States has now overtaken.

“Europe is seeing demand drop because of last year’s prices. Orange juice is a highly ‘elastic’ product — when prices rise, consumption falls…,” Netto said.

Asked whether European consumption might rebound now that prices are lower, the executive director acknowledged the possibility.

“The issue is the timing. Often the rebound is slower, but it does come,” he said.

In revenue terms, Brazilian orange juice exports recorded an even sharper decline, falling 25% to US$1.2 billion year-on-year, according to CitrusBR.

Source: Investimentos e Notícias (Com Reuters)

For FAMA, the season started more strongly than expected. “We expected to export 60 to 70 containers of varieties like Salustiana, Newhall, Washington Navel, and Midknight, but in the end, we exported over 120. The limited availability in the United States and Brazil, along with decreased shipments from Egypt due to higher internal consumption for concentrates, created a favorable environment for early Argentinean oranges,” explained Nahuel, the company’s representative.

The outlook changed with the arrival of winter in the southern hemisphere. “A July frost caused about 50% losses in mandarins and also impacted oranges. It was the most serious issue we faced because the reduced exportable volume led to higher unit costs and lower competitiveness,” Nahuel explained.

According to FAMA, “in late oranges, the strong presence of South Africa in international markets coincided with months of lower citrus consumption in the northern hemisphere, which pushed prices downward. The minimum FOB quotes were around $13 per 15kg box in category 1, with $11 to $12 for lower qualities.”

The company sees opportunities to expand into new markets but also acknowledges the challenges of maritime connectivity. “Reaching some markets can take anywhere from 50 to 70 days of transit, often involving multiple transshipments that increase risk and uncertainty,” he stated.

FAMA is also progressing in varietal diversification. This year, it shipped its first Caracara blood oranges to targeted niche markets. “They will not replace the traditional varieties, but they have their place in the market, and we will continue developing them,” Nahuel said.

“We expect a significant rebound in volumes next season. The flowering indicates a plentiful harvest, though the quality remains uncertain. We believe higher production will allow us to grow into new markets and strengthen our presence in existing ones,” he added.

Regarding internal management, the company highlights progress in utilizing real-time data to enhance efficiency. “Today, it is essential to monitor each packing line, volume, discards, and calibers, and share this information with producers to improve results. Such management allows us to respond quickly in a rapidly changing business,” Nahuel concluded.

Source: Fresh Plaza

Brazil is among the largest avocado producers

In 2023, the country ranked seventh in global avocado production, accounting for 4% of the world’s harvest. Despite this, it exported only 26,200 tonnes, generating revenues of US$39 million and placing Brazil as the world’s 18th-largest exporter, according to FAOSTAT data.

Strong growth in exports

According to agronomist Paulo Andrade, avocado was the seventh most exported fresh fruit from Brazil in 2024, with 24,600 tonnes shipped and revenues of US$36.3 million. The average price reached US$1,471 per tonne.

Over the past ten years, avocado exports have jumped 432% in volume and 452% in value. In 2015, Brazil exported just 4,600 tonnes, with revenues of US$6.6 million, according to Agrostat/Mapa.

Main destinations for Brazilian avocados

The Netherlands, Argentina, and Spain account for the majority of purchases. Together, they represented 80.7% of revenues and 76.9% of the export volume in 2024.

Netherlands: 41.1% of sales and 36.5% of volume
Argentina: 22.3% of revenues and 21.3% of volume
Spain: 17.3% of revenues and 19% of volume

The bulletin highlights that the Dutch act as distributors to other European countries rather than consuming all the imported avocados domestically.

Quality and promotion boost sales

The study also notes that Brazil’s participation in international fruit-growing events and its investment in product quality were decisive factors for the expansion of exports, especially from 2023 onward.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

The achievement was made possible through a partnership between the Goiás Agricultural Defense Agency (Agrodefesa), Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA), farmers, and technical supervisors, ensuring that production met international phytosanitary requirements.

Monitoring

So far this year, Agrodefesa has monitored 40 cucurbit farms in Goiás with export potential. These include 37 watermelon farms, two pumpkin farms, and one melon farm, totaling 492 hectares across the municipalities of Carmo do Rio Verde, Itapuranga, Jaraguá, Porangatu, and Uruana. Estimated production amounts to 33,500 tonnes: 30,410 tonnes of watermelon, 2,590 tonnes of pumpkin, and 500 tonnes of melon.

According to Agrodefesa president José Ricardo Caixeta Ramos, the advance of Goiás’ fruit sector in foreign trade reinforces the credibility of the state’s agricultural defense work.
“The Government of Goiás, through Agrodefesa, ensures our products reach international markets with quality, traceability, and safety. This collective effort expands the presence of Goiás fruits abroad and strengthens the state’s economy,” he said.

Control stages

The export process requires strict monitoring for fruit flies (Anastrepha grandis), conducted by licensed technical supervisors and overseen by Agrodefesa. State inspectors register farms, monitor production cycles, oversee shipments, issue plant transit permits, and seal cargo.

At the border, a federal auditor from Mapa conducts a final check and issues the Phytosanitary Export Certificate, which guarantees entry of the product into the importing country.

Agrodefesa’s Plant Health Manager, Leonardo Macedo, stressed that this technical oversight is crucial to opening doors abroad.
“Each harvest strengthens international confidence in Goiás’ agricultural defense. This is the key factor that gives competitiveness to fruits produced in the state,” he said.

Mário Sérgio de Oliveira, coordinator of Agrodefesa’s Risk Mitigation System (SMR) program for cucurbits, explained that SMR measures are essential for exports.
“Monitoring begins in the field with sample collection and weekly inspections. Only after confirming no fruit fly occurrence does a farm receive authorization to export. This guarantees traceability and phytosanitary security until the final destination,” he said.

Enio Gomes Gontijo Júnior, the technical supervisor of the Porangatu melon farm, emphasized the collective nature of the effort.
“It’s not just about producing a healthy fruit, but about strengthening the entire production system to meet international requirements. We had to choose the right area, ensure the climate was suitable, plant at the right time, and harvest exactly when the buyer demanded. The technical supervisor is the link between producer, Agrodefesa, and the market, which gives us the confidence to move forward,” he explained.

Market expansion

With melons now part of Goiás’ export portfolio, the state is broadening its international presence in cucurbits, which already includes watermelon and pumpkin. The expectation is that Porangatu’s melon production will follow the same path, carving out space in global markets with Agrodefesa’s phytosanitary guarantee.

For Gontijo Júnior, melons complement Goiás’ growing cucurbit exports.
“We already have several new areas interested in becoming certified under SMR to expand sales abroad, especially for watermelon, followed by pumpkin, and now melon. With Argentina’s improved economic outlook, opportunities to export quality fruit have grown, encouraging more producers to prepare for this market,” he added.

Source: Governo de Goiás