Demand for cattle is high in the country because meatpackers are rushing to increase exports to China, Brazil’s main customer, while there is still room in the reduced tariff quota. As a result, the industry expects the quota to be fully filled by May.

Datamar data shows that Brazil exported 7,780 TEUs of beef to China in January 2026, marking a 4.8% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The following chart, compiled using intelligence from the DataLiner platform, details the monthly outbound shipments of Brazilian beef to the Chinese market:

Beef Exports to China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Since the beginning of the year, China has imposed safeguards on beef imports from different suppliers and established a quota of 1.1 million tonnes imported from Brazil with a 12% tariff. For extra quota exports, the rate is 55%.

Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (ABIEC), said on Wednesday that Brazil should fill its entire beef export quota to China by the first week of May. During a cattle farming meeting held by Scot Consultoria in Ribeirão Preto, Perosa said there was an acceleration of shipments in March after the Lula administration decided not to create a control system to regulate exports. As a result, he said, the volume exported in the first three months has already exceeded 40% of the 1.1 million tonne quota.

He noted, however, that Chinese authorities have not yet consolidated the figures for last month.

Experts consulted by Valor believe that prices tend to remain high until the Chinese quota is filled. “There may be price volatility [with the filling of the quota],” said Thiago Bernardino, a researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA).

He noted, however, that beef supply is low in countries important to the global market, such as the United States, where the cattle herd is the smallest in decades. This would prevent the price per arroba of beef from falling much worldwide.

In Brazil, cattle supply also remains tight for now, forcing a rise in prices, he said.

For Alcides Torres, director of Scot Consultoria, the Chinese quota was the main factor in changing the market dynamics, as it accelerated purchases of cattle for slaughter and subsequent export of meat. As a result, total shipments reached a historical high for the month of March this year.

Data from Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) released on Tuesday (7) show that shipments of Brazilian fresh beef totaled 233,950 tonnes in March, up 8.6% over the year before. The average price also rose, 18.7%, to $5,814.80 per tonne.

According to Perosa, from ABIEC, the Chinese quota is the main concern of the beef industry today, since negotiations for a revision of the volume have not progressed and there is no prospect of a quick opening of new markets for the beef that would go to China.

In practice, the quota has reduced the market for Brazilian beef in China, since the Asian country had imported a total of 1.68 million tonnes in 2025.

Perosa said he does not believe that a triangulation of Brazilian beef to China via Vietnam, which opened its market to Brazilian beef last year but consumes more buffalo, or via Hong Kong, which imports offal from Brazil and sends it to China, is viable.

He also noted that the quota system created by Beijing will likely also be in force for 2027 and 2028, which means that it will be necessary to continue seeking alternative markets.

For Perosa, China’s justification for imposing quotas is political, lacking any technical basis, because Chinese livestock farming is unable to supply the product at competitive prices.

“The Chinese safeguard measures affect all countries, but Brazil suffered the biggest reduction [in exports]. They must have thought they could take more from Brazil because the impact wouldn’t be as great, since we export many other commodities [to China], like soybeans. But it has a huge impact on our sector because China was the destination for 46% of our beef exports last year,” he lamented.

According to him, the solution is to continue negotiating, focus on opening new markets where beef consumption is high, and increase productivity.

Despite the changes in the dynamics of beef exports, there are no signs of change in cattle feedlots in 2026, according to Alcides Torres of Scot. “According to our own estimate, this year we should have between nine and ten million head in feedlots, but it has nothing to do with this dynamic caused by the imposition of the Chinese tariffs,” he said.

He noted that events such as the FIFA World Cup and the October elections in Brazil tend to support domestic consumption, which contributes to the continuation of the sector’s plans to invest in intensive cattle finishing.

Source: Valor International

The report compiled shipment data for Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Israel, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Egypt.

Exports of 40 categories of poultry meat and offal to those countries fell 21% year over year in March, dropping from 138,000 tonnes to 108,000 tonnes. There were no shipments of these products to Iran in either March 2025 or March 2026.

By contrast, corn exports to the 15 Middle Eastern countries rose 24%, reaching 907,000 tonnes. Shipments to Iran—the largest buyer of Brazilian corn—nearly came to a halt, falling from 304,000 tonnes in March 2025 to just over 1,000 tonnes in March this year.

Meanwhile, volumes shipped to Egypt surged 1,171.5%, and Brazil exported 26,000 tonnes to Iraq, a market that had received no Brazilian corn shipments a year earlier.

Total exports of poultry meat and offal rose 6.9% to 468,700 tonnes, while overall corn exports increased 12.8% to 983,000 tonnes.

Source: Valor International

Brazilian agribusiness exports totaled $170 billion in 2025, of which about $25 billion went to the European Union. Bruno Capuzzi, a researcher at Insper Agro Global, estimates that $17 billion in products Brazil sold to Europe already enter tariff-free, as is the case with soybeans and green coffee. That leaves another $8 billion in agribusiness products that will benefit from the agreement, most of them through tariff reductions over four to 10 years. Of that total, about $700 million will be affected immediately by the EU-Mercosur tariff cuts, becoming duty-free as soon as the agreement begins.

In addition to soybean oil, products such as leather derivatives, vinegars, bone meal proteins and wines will also become tariff-free, Capuzzi said. Items such as soluble coffee, beef and chicken will see tariffs reduced gradually. The new rules will apply to all Mercosur countries, not only Brazil.

“We still do not know how demand will behave, but the potential increase in shipments could indeed translate into better margins for rural producers,” Capuzzi said.

Daniel Amaral, director of economics and regulatory affairs at the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, told Valor that soybean oil tariffs currently range from 3.2% to 9.6%, depending on the product’s use, industrial or food, and on its degree of processing, crude or refined. Soybean meal is already tariff-free.

“With the implementation of the agreement, tariffs on crude soybean oil will be eliminated, while duties on other types of oil will be reduced to 4%. This tariff relief represents a significant step forward for Brazilian product access to the European market,” he said.

The expectation is that the EU-Mercosur tariff cuts will also attract new investment across the soybean supply chain. Even so, Abiove estimates that the most significant gains will come over the longer term, rather than through any abrupt shift in export volumes this year.

The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, or Cecafé, said the agreement provides for annual tariff reductions on Brazilian soluble coffee, roasted coffee and roasted and ground coffee entering the European bloc until they reach zero within four years. That will allow Brazil to increase its competitiveness in the European Union and likely expand exports of those products, especially soluble coffee.

For soluble coffee, the agreement is particularly relevant because the EU is the second-largest buyer of the Brazilian product, behind only the United States, said Aguinaldo Lima, director of institutional relations at the Brazilian Soluble Coffee Industry Association. The tariff on soluble coffee shipments will fall from 7.20% in 2026 to zero in 2030.

At the same time, another factor supporting Brazilian coffee competitiveness, especially robusta, is the impact of the Middle East conflict on Vietnam, Brazil’s main competitor in the European market. “Routes for Vietnamese product bound for Europe may end up being altered by the war, which could favor Brazil,” Lima said.

Meat quotas

In the meat segment, once the agreement takes effect and the required quota licenses and certificates are in place, Mercosur will receive a tariff-free quota of 15,000 tonnes of bone-in chicken and 15,000 tonnes of boneless chicken, according to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association, or ABPA.

The group’s president, Ricardo Santin, said the duty-free quota will gradually increase over six years until it reaches 90,000 tonnes of bone-in chicken and 90,000 tonnes of boneless chicken. “We are still discussing among the countries how much of the quota Brazil will receive. Brazil tends to be the country that will benefit the most in volume,” Santin said. “The EU is a market with good pricing, and that helps company margins. What is still unclear is the size of the benefit.”

In the case of beef, the sector expects the agreement to lead to gradual and moderate growth of about 5% a year in Brazilian sales to Europe, according to Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association, or Abiec.

“The Mercosur-European Union agreement is positive for Brazilian beef, mainly because it improves access conditions to a market that pays better and focuses on higher value-added cuts, such as hindquarter cuts already exported to countries like Italy, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands,” he said.

On the Hilton quota, Perosa said removing the 20% tariff should increase competitiveness and make it easier to fill that volume in full. “As for the new 99,000-tonne quota, it will be divided among Mercosur countries on a phased basis over five years. Even so, it is important to stress that this does not automatically mean an increase in exports, because part of that volume is already traded today and will simply move under more favorable tariff conditions,” he added.

Source: Globo Rural

According to Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, export value to the region’s 15 countries dropped from $1.2 billion in March 2025 to $882 million this year.

The decline hit agribusiness products especially hard. Pork exports fell 59%. Chicken sales, the main product Brazil sells to the Middle East, dropped about 22%. Soybean sales to the region declined 25%.

According to the ministry’s statistics director, Herlon Brandão, it is still too early to measure the full effects of the conflict on international trade.

“To state that the conflict is affecting trade flows, we need to wait a little longer,” Brandão said.

At the end of March, Brazil reached an agreement with Turkey for the transit and temporary storage of agribusiness goods exported to the Middle East and Central Asia. The effects, however, are expected to begin appearing only in April’s trade balance data.

Oil

The positive highlight in Brazil’s export results was oil. Crude oil exports rose 70.4% in value, reaching $4.7 billion. In volume terms, growth was 75.9%.

According to the government, it is still not possible to say that the increase is directly linked to the conflict, although the war has already affected about 20% of global oil trade and significantly pushed up barrel prices on the international market.

In the coming months, oil sales are expected to decline. To offset part of its diesel subsidies, the government introduced a 12% tax on Brazilian oil exports in mid-March.

Global impact

Beyond the Middle East, other important markets also reduced purchases of Brazilian products in March compared with the same month last year.

Exports to the United States fell 9.1%, while shipments to Canada declined 10% and sales to Argentina dropped 5.9%.

Sales to China, however, rose 17.8% in the month, reinforcing the Asian country’s role as Brazil’s main trading partner.

Results

In trade with the United States, Brazil posted a deficit in March, with exports of $2.8 billion and imports of $3.3 billion. With China, by contrast, the country recorded a surplus of $3.8 billion during the period.

Exports to the European Union rose 7.3%, while sales to Argentina declined, though Brazil still maintained a positive trade balance with the neighboring country.

The picture reflects the initial effects of the war on global trade, with uneven impacts across regions and products, especially in supply chains linked to energy and food.

Despite the isolated declines, Brazil posted a trade surplus of $6.4 billion in March. Total exports reached $31.7 billion, up 10%, while imports rose 20.1% to $25.2 billion.

Source: Agência Brasil

Chile was the leading destination, with nearly 24 million kilograms shipped worth more than $157.7 million, followed by Israel with 10.9 million kilograms valued at $80.9 million and the United States with 12.1 million kilograms worth $65.7 million.

Paraguay also exported 4,073,223 kilograms of pork products during the quarter, generating $12.6 million in revenue. Iraq, Vietnam and the Philippines were the main destinations, the data showed. Poultry exports totaled 2,195,367 kilograms worth more than $2.9 million.

Compared with the first quarter of 2025, beef export volumes fell 30.6% from 90.6 million kilograms, while revenue declined 12% from $509.9 million, the data showed.

Following a family farming fair called “Semana Santa Ra’arõvo,” where more than 450 million guaranies worth of beef was sold — about 17,000 kilograms — Paraguay’s Agriculture Ministry said it plans to continue offering different cuts at upcoming 2026 family farming fairs at affordable prices.

Source: Agencia Información de Paraguaya

Despite requests from the Brazilian government to broaden the area under review, the audit will focus on the three southern states, the first in the country to be certified as free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination.

The on-site audit is a decisive step in the long-running sanitary approval process required for beef shipments, one Brazil has been awaiting for decades. After the visit by the Japanese specialists, the remaining process for export authorization would be limited to paperwork. Even so, the private sector remains cautious, and a lengthy wait for market opening is still possible.

Japan imports about 700,000 tonnes of beef a year, roughly 60% of its domestic consumption, mainly from the United States and Australia, in a trade worth about $4 billion annually. Canada, Mexico, New Zealand and Uruguay also export beef to the country.

Brazil wants a share of that market because of the high prices Japanese buyers pay for beef, with average prices ranging from $4,500 to $6,800 per tonne, and also to diversify its export base, especially after China, its main customer, imposed quotas. Brazil’s meat exporters association, Abiec, declined to comment.

Brazil’s export basket to Japan is currently led by other animal proteins, notably chicken and pork, which accounted for 38.77% and 15.64% of shipments, respectively, according to Datamar data. The table below, based on DataLiner platform data, provides a more detailed breakdown of this key Asian market:

Brazilian Exports to Japan | Jan-Feb 2026 vs. Jan-Feb 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The delegation is made up of auditors from Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization. The audit results will be reviewed by a Japanese animal health committee before a decision is made, with no deadline set.

On-site inspections

Valor has learned that the inspection will seek to test the consistency and reliability of the technical dossier Brazil submitted in response to a Japanese questionnaire, as well as the effective implementation of sanitary legislation and procedures by all parties involved. Inspectors will also assess how effective Brazil’s surveillance and control measures for foot-and-mouth disease are at the national, regional and local levels. The goal is to verify the country’s ability to prevent, detect and control the disease.

The Japanese review of Brazil’s health system would apply to a possible market opening for the three southern states, despite Brazilian requests to include at least Rondônia and Acre, which had also already been recognized as zones free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination. The itinerary includes visits to cattle farms, meatpacking plants, a federal agricultural laboratory, surveillance structures at airports and state borders, and agricultural defense agencies.

Once this sanitary barrier is cleared, despite Brazil’s status and the presence of its beef in more than 160 countries, the country is expected to push for better commercial access terms in Japan. Exporters currently face tariffs of as much as 38.5%, seen as high by international standards. The United States, for example, imposes a 26.4% tariff, while China applies a 12% rate within the quota set at the start of the year.

The specialists who arrived last weekend are due to meet animal health authorities in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná. As part of the risk assessment, they will examine Brazil’s legal framework and how it is applied, livestock production and distribution conditions, establishment-level controls, traceability and animal movement controls, quarantine, laboratory diagnostics, surveillance and the response to a potential foot-and-mouth outbreak.

There is a confidentiality agreement between the Brazilian and Japanese governments barring disclosure of information on schedules, sites to be visited, preparations for the on-site inspection and other related operational details, under penalty of cancellation of the mission.

A Japanese team of sanitary specialists was already in Brazil in 2025 for a preliminary assessment that was not yet official or final, following a route similar to the current one. Talks on opening the market gained momentum after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited Japan in March last year, when Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba committed to sending the mission.

Shortly afterward, in June 2025, Brazil was recognized by the World Organisation for Animal Health as a country free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination, one of Japan’s requirements for buying beef from suppliers.

Food security

Last week, Yasushi Noguchi, Japan’s ambassador in Brasília, said in an interview with Brazilian news outlet Poder360 that the country is going through a period of economic expansion and is seeking greater resilience in its supply chain. He said that, in that context, partnerships with Brazil become strategic and cited the beef market opening process.

“We are taking steps to move into the next stage and hope this process will accelerate so that we can decide on opening the beef market,” he said in the interview with Poder360. Asked about other states that could eventually be assessed, he said that would depend on the outcome of the inspection in the South and that, afterward, Japanese officials could speak with Brazilian authorities to “see what the next step will be.”

Source: Valor International

Through March 21, export revenue totaled $710.1 million, up 7.1%.

That result was based on shipments of 140,828 tonnes, measured in shipment weight, down 9.47%.

Average export prices reached $5,042 per tonne, up 18.24%.

Beef remains firmly in the lead

Looking specifically at beef, which accounts for the vast majority of meat exports from Uruguay’s meat industry, it continues to rank as the most relevant agribusiness product among the country’s main generators of export revenue.

It is followed by pulp, beverage concentrates, dairy products, rapeseed and carinata, wood and wood products, vehicles and rice, meaning that eight of Uruguay’s top 10 export goods come from agribusiness.

According to Uruguay XXI data through the end of February, beef exports rose 8% from the same period last year.

Main markets for all meats

The United States, Canada and Mexico accounted for 35% of revenue, at $251.2 million, up 1.9%.

China represented 28%, at $195.7 million, up 10.9%.

The European Union accounted for 18%, at $127.1 million, up 12.5%.

Israel represented 5%, at $37.1 million, up 0.1%.

Mercosur accounted for 3%, at $23.4 million, up 3.1%.

Beef accounts for 84% of export revenue

Looking only at beef exports, which account for 84% of total foreign currency revenue generated by all meat exports, income rose 8.8% from 2025 to 2026, again through March 21, reaching $593.2 million.

In volume terms, measured in shipment weight, Uruguay exported 79,029 tonnes of beef, down 6.9%.

Average beef export revenue between January and March 2026 reached $7,506 per tonne, up 17% from the same period of 2025.

Container throughput data obtained by Datamar points to an upward trend in Uruguay’s long-haul beef shipments. See more details below:

Beef Exports | Uruguay | Jan 2022 – Feb 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Main destinations for beef

The United States, Canada and Mexico accounted for 41% of beef export revenue, at $243.7 million, up 7.6%, with demand totaling 46,722 tonnes in carcass weight, up 0.3%.

China accounted for 26%, at $151.3 million, up 18.1%, with 35,503 tonnes, down 5.7%.

The European Union represented 17%, at $100.6 million, up 1.7%, with 10,666 tonnes, down 19.5%.

Israel accounted for 5%, at $32.5 million, up 7.6%, with 4,882 tonnes, down 15.9%.

Mercosur represented 2%, at $12.9 million, down 15.7%, with 1,941 tonnes, down 25.3%.

The broader backdrop

Uruguay closed 2025 with a record $3.25 billion in meat export revenue, of which $2.711 billion came from beef, an increase of 26% from 2024.

Shipments totaled 693,528 tonnes, measured in shipment weight, down 0.6% year on year, while the average value reached $4,686 per tonne, up 25.1% from 2024.

Source: El Observador, translated and adapted by the BeefPoint team

The possibility of a tariff of as much as 55% on shipments exceeding the quota adds to the challenge. Against that backdrop, analysts say the sector is likely to enter a period of adjustment, with shifts in export destinations and direct effects on domestic cattle prices.

Even with those uncertainties, the strong export performance at the start of the year shows that international demand remains firm. In the first two months of the year, Brazil shipped 557,240 tonnes and generated $2.865 billion in revenue, up 22% in volume and 39% in value from a year earlier, underscoring the importance of Brazilian beef in the global market.

Datamar data shows that Brazil exported 7,780 TEUs of beef to China in January 2026, marking a 4.8% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The following chart, compiled using intelligence from the DataLiner platform, details the monthly outbound shipments of Brazilian beef to the Chinese market:

Beef Exports to China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

China’s pace is bringing forward a market shift

According to Hyberville Neto, director at HN AGRO, the current pace suggests the quota will be reached quickly. “We believe our quota will be exhausted early in the second half, between July and August,” he said.

That view is shared by Fernando Henrique Iglesias of Safras & Mercado, who said the timeline could be even tighter. “At the current pace, Brazil’s quota could be exhausted between May and, at the latest, early July. That is effectively the shelf life of our exports to China,” he said.

Lygia Pimentel, chief executive of Agrifatto, also pointed to an early exhaustion. “Yes. Given the current pace of exports, around 110,000 tonnes shipped to China per month, we will reach the quota between June and July,” she said.

Third quarter could bring pressure on cattle prices

If the quota is exhausted, the market may face a period of reduced exports to China, especially in the third quarter. That prospect is troubling analysts because of its potential effect on cattle prices just as more feedlot animals reach the market.

Iglesias warned of this dynamic. “What we are basically going to see is nine months of very active exports. The first half and the final quarter, while a gap forms during the third quarter of the year. That could have a very negative effect on cattle prices as feedlot animals come to market, which is precisely in the third quarter,” he said.

Pimentel also highlighted the risk. “The current context will bring a great deal of risk and volatility. If the quota is reached in July, we will face an export hiatus to China between August and October, which means we will need to intensify shipments to other countries,” she said.

According to her, that period coincides with larger cattle supply. “That tends to put pressure on prices at a time when animals are leaving the feedlots,” she said.

Market diversification will be essential

With the limitation imposed by China, Brazil is expected to intensify its search for new markets. For Hyberville Neto, a redistribution of export destinations will be unavoidable. “Brazilian beef is highly competitive, but if those tariffs are in fact maintained, the tendency is for the composition of our export destinations to change,” he said.

He also pointed to the role of alternative markets. “Hong Kong has historically functioned as an indirect gateway into China and remains a relevant market that could gain importance in scenarios of trade restriction,” he said.

Another relevant point involves indirect trade partners. “Uruguay has a generous quota of 324,000 tonnes and used only 10.9% of that total in the first two months. It is a country that has been buying more from Brazil and could supply itself with our beef, freeing up a larger share of its own production to serve China,” he said.

The Safras & Mercado analyst also stressed diversification. “Brazil is looking for diversification, looking for new alternatives in this global context. We have the Japanese mission arriving in Brazil now, and we also need to consider other relevant countries such as the United States, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, which has been buying more, the European Union and the United States,” he said.

Lower supply could help balance the domestic market

Despite the external uncertainties, the domestic market may not face excessive supply. That is because Brazil is currently in a phase of female cattle retention, which reduces beef production.

Hyberville Neto explained the dynamic. “Expectations are for lower beef production in Brazil due to female retention, which was already evident in the first months of 2026. Even though the quota issue is highly relevant, lower production combined with the redirection of part of output to other markets may help keep the domestic market from becoming oversupplied,” he said.

Agrifatto also sees room for domestic absorption. “Certainly,” Pimentel said when asked whether volumes not exported could be redirected to the domestic market.

That balance between tighter supply and redirected exports may help prevent steeper price declines, even if the export “gap” weighs on external sales.

China’s return could lift prices late in the year

If the third quarter may prove challenging, the last quarter brings more positive prospects. The expectation is that China will resume purchases, which could once again heat up the market.

Iglesias expects a strong move. “When we look at the last quarter, once China returns to buying Brazilian beef with the 2027 quota in mind, we could see the market rise aggressively,” he said.

Pimentel also pointed to this scenario. “In November, the Chinese will need to return to the market, because what is shipped in November will only arrive in China around January. That should bring another strong wave of buying, perhaps even a compensatory one,” she said.

Still, dependence on the Chinese market remains a point of concern. Iglesias summed it up this way: “As long as there is no quota management, we will remain hostage to this situation: a very fast export rush followed by a gap in sales to what remains our main market.”

Global backdrop remains favorable despite risks

Even with the challenges posed by China, the international environment still offers opportunities. The United States, for example, is expected to import about 2.5 million tonnes in 2026, maintaining strong demand for Brazilian beef.

Other markets are also growing, including Chile, Russia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. There are also expectations for the opening and consolidation of markets such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea.

External factors such as international conflicts may still affect logistics costs. Even so, the Middle East accounts for a relatively small share of Brazilian exports, limiting the negative impact.

For Pimentel, Brazil’s competitiveness remains a key advantage. “Brazil will stay competitive as long as its prices remain lower than those of its competitors. We project that this will remain the case throughout 2026. And, of course, factors such as standardization, sanitary protocols, which we follow very strictly, and strong marketing to convey our message to clients also matter,” she said.

What cattle producers should watch

In this environment, producers should pay close attention to volatility and opportunities to hedge prices. The futures market could be an important tool to secure greater predictability.

Iglesias stressed that point. “Producers need to pay close attention to the volatility this safeguard measure imposed by China can cause. It can create a great deal of instability in prices on the B3. Today, for example, it offers an interesting opportunity and allows for favorable price locking,” he said.

In his view, that environment may favor better planning. “It provides a good opportunity to lock in prices, to put together a well-structured hedge, and it can give cattle producers a very interesting condition to work within this market and achieve greater predictability in their cash flow,” he said.

In the end, 2026 is likely to be marked by a more dynamic market, one that is also more sensitive to external factors. Between the risk of a temporary gap in exports and the prospect of a strong rebound at the end of the year, the key word for cattle producers will be management.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

The suspension follows a standard biosecurity protocol, as was the case in Argentina, which recorded cases of the disease earlier this year, and is intended to protect trade agreements and prevent the spread of the virus to other partner countries. Chile is a strategic player in the poultry market, exporting to demanding destinations such as the European Union, China and the United States.

Chile is also one of the region’s major consumers of animal protein and an important buyer of Brazilian chicken. In 2025, the Chilean market ranked among the top 10 destinations for Brazil’s poultry exports. For local consumers, Chilean authorities stressed that there is no risk.

The consumption of chicken meat and eggs remains safe as long as the products are properly cooked. The focus now is on regionalization, a strategy aimed at allowing exports from areas not affected by the virus to resume. “We are working intensively on containment. The goal now is to negotiate with international partners so they accept the zoning protocol. That would allow regions with no active cases to resume exports,” Chile’s sanitary authority said in an official statement.

Source: Band.com

The official figures come from Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“There is no doubt that the results could be considered a statistical tie,” economist José Roberto Mendonça de Barros of MB Associados said.

The gap stood at $2.1 billion, or 1.2%, in favor of the United States, equivalent to just 4.5 days of Brazilian exports. According to the economist, Brazil remains on a growth trajectory, unlike the United States.

Leader in commodities

For Carlos Cogo of Cogo Inteligência em Agronegócios, Brazil is already the leader in agricultural commodity exports overall. According to him, the methodologies used by the USDA and Brazil’s ministry differ, and the U.S. figures include a broader range of products.

Under the category “Ag Specialties,” the U.S. agency includes prepared foods, as well as wine, beer and various manufactured products.

“When the baskets are aligned, Brazil would already have been in the lead since 2024, at least in commodities. What matters most, however, is the trend. Very soon we will take the lead regardless of the methodology used,” he said.

Cogo also cited an analysis published in 2025 by Insper Agro Global, titled “Brazil becomes the world’s largest exporter of agricultural commodities,” which reached the same conclusion.

“Brazil keeps growing, whether in cotton, pork or other products. What stands out is the sustained pace. Between 2000 and 2024, our growth rate was 8.6%, compared with 5.3% for the Americans, whose exports fell over the last two years,” he said.

Datamar commercial intelligence, sourced from its flagship DataLiner platform, highlights that Brazil exported 47,242 TEUs of cotton industry products during the opening bimonthly period of 2026.

The following chart details the historical progression of Brazilian cotton exports:

Cotton Exports | Jan 2023 – Feb 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Tariff war

Brazil posted record agribusiness export revenue in 2025, up 3% from the previous year.

“The country set a record for agribusiness exports in 2025, even in a very challenging external environment,” said Luis Rua, secretary for foreign trade and international relations at Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry.

For example, trade policies under Donald Trump’s government hurt commerce between the two countries. After 110 days of tariff hikes, Brazil’s exports to the U.S. market fell from $12.08 billion in 2024 to $11.40 billion in 2025.

That represented a decline of $677.65 million, or 5.6%. On its own, that drop would not have put Brazil in the lead, but it would have narrowed the gap even further.

Historical trend

The comparison between Brazil and the United States in agricultural exports follows a broader structural shift. Between 2020 and 2025, the U.S. lead narrowed from $50 billion to the current $2.1 billion.

“U.S. agriculture is mature, run by older producers, and has been suffering from strategic competition with China, especially during the Trump administration,” Mendonça de Barros argued.

Historical data from the World Trade Organization make the trend even clearer. In 2005, the United States generated 137% more revenue than Brazil from agricultural exports. By 2025, that lead had shrunk to just 1.2%.

At the top?

The geopolitical environment in 2026 could favor Brazil overtaking the United States in agricultural export revenue. Mendonça de Barros pointed to the outbreak of war in the Middle East and worsening ties between the United States and China as the main factors.

“Brazil maintains a constructive relationship with China and with Asia more broadly. We are also continuing to diversify markets, including in Europe, with the recent Mercosur-European Union agreement,” he said.

In the case of the United States, those same relationships appear increasingly strained, with conflicting economic and geopolitical interests.

“More than anything, the China factor matters. The agreement between China and the United States for the purchase of 25 million tonnes of grains failed. The data show China bought only 8 million,” he said.

That situation could ultimately force U.S. agriculture to reduce its competition in the international market.

“There is pressure to raise biofuel blending mandates. Our view is that they may turn more toward the domestic market to absorb grain output,” he said.

For the Agriculture Ministry, meanwhile, the opening of 548 markets over the last three years reinforces the trend.

“Of the more than 550 markets opened in the last three years, at least 200 are already importing. That should further increase our agribusiness exports,” Rua said.

Fonte: Globo Rural