Earlier ​this week, a court decision said ​a 12% tax enacted about a ⁠month ago, as oil prices spiked ​due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, ​might be unconstitutional. A definitive ruling is still pending.

The court exempted TotalEnergies, Repsol Sinopec, Galp’s Petrogal, ​Shell, and Equinor from a tax ​on crude oil exports. Brazil’s state‑run oil firm Petrobras, ‌the ⁠country’s largest oil exporter, is not affected by the ruling.

“Naturally, we will appeal this decision,” Silveira said.

The 12% levy was ​imposed by ​President ⁠Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government as part of a package ​aimed at cushioning the impact ​on ⁠Brazilian consumers of a sharp rise in international oil and fuel prices triggered by ⁠the ​war in the Middle ​East.

Reporting by Rodrigo Viga Gaier for Reuters

Export volumes of the commodity increased, which analysts say partly reflects the impact of the war in the Middle East, as previously contracted shipments were brought forward.

Among Brazil’s main destinations, exports rose to China and the European Union. They fell, however, to Argentina and the United States, two traditional markets for Brazilian manufactured goods. In the U.S. case, the decline is also tied to the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

Brazil ended March 2026 with a trade surplus of $6.4 billion, with exports of $31.6 billion and imports of $25.2 billion, data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat at the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services showed. In the first quarter, the surplus reached $14.2 billion, with exports of $82.3 billion and imports of $68.2 billion, up 7.1% and 1.3%, respectively, from the same period in 2025.

Total Brazilian exports last month were $2.88 billion higher than in March 2025, a 10% increase. Oil shipments rose at a much faster pace, up 70.4%, driven mainly by a 75.9% increase in volume.

Average export prices fell 3.1%, even though international oil prices rose during the month after the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. Oil export revenue totaled $4.77 billion in March, up from $2.8 billion in the same month of 2025, an increase of $1.97 billion.

With that performance, oil’s share of Brazil’s export revenue rose to 15.1% from 9.7% a year earlier. Even so, soybeans remained Brazil’s top export item in the month, totaling $5.92 billion, up 4.3% from March 2025 and accounting for 18.7% of total export revenue.

“The conflict in the Middle East left a direct mark on the March numbers, and that shows up on the export side,” said Ariane Benedito, chief economist at digital bank PicPay. “Brazil took advantage of a window of stronger demand from oil-importing countries seeking to diversify supply amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz, but the contracts that had already been signed still did not fully reflect the geopolitical risk premium.”

The net effect of oil on the month’s trade balance was positive by $1.85 billion, Benedito noted. Without that impact, she said, the March surplus would have been just $4.55 billion. “That shows how nonrecurring the March result was and how dependent it was on a specific external factor: the redirection of oil cargoes during a short-term window shaped by geopolitics.”

China demand

Government data show that China accounted for $1.6 billion of the $1.9 billion increase in Brazil’s crude oil exports in March. Shipments to China totaled $3.1 billion last month, or 64.6% of all Brazilian crude oil exports, a jump of 111.2%. The United States was the second-largest market, with a 6.8% share.

Looking at export destinations more broadly, André Valério, chief economist at Inter, pointed to higher overall shipment values to China and the European Union, up 17.8% and 7.3%, respectively.

Exports to the United States and Argentina, however, fell 9.1% and 5.9%, respectively, from March 2025. Even before the war, he noted, the expectation was that trade flows with the U.S. would not recover immediately, even after the rollback of the so-called “tariff hike,” which had imposed tariffs of as much as 50% on Brazilian products under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the U.S. economic emergency law.

“When a [trade] network is disrupted, it does not come back together so easily. This weakening was already expected,” he said.

José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association, said the data show how Brazil has become increasingly dependent on the Chinese market, which already takes most of the country’s soybean and iron ore exports.

In his view, despite the uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East, Brazilian oil exports are likely to become even more concentrated in China under the current geopolitical backdrop, given the volume that the Asian giant is able to absorb.

Lucas Barbosa, an economist at asset manager AZ Quest, noted that Brazil had already been posting strong growth in oil production over the past year. “There is a scenario in which the trade balance for oil and petroleum products could top $50 billion this year. And oil above $100 a barrel should support the trade balance and economic activity in the short term. Unfortunately, on the inflation side, because we import part of our fuel products, we are not fully insulated from the shock.”

Imports also accelerate

Exports, said Valério of Inter, should get a boost in 2026 from oil as a consequence of the war, and that effect should be greater for the overall trade balance than the impact on imports from higher fuel and fertilizer prices.

“We see upward bias for the trade surplus at the end of this year compared with our pre-war forecast,” he said. Inter’s 2026 trade surplus estimate, previously closer to $73 billion or $74 billion, now has an upward bias toward something closer to $80 billion.

On the import side, Herlon Brandão, director of foreign trade statistics and studies at the Foreign Trade Secretariat, said diesel import volumes fell 20% in March, but cautioned that it is still too early to directly link that movement to the conflict in the Middle East and that more data are needed.

“We are looking here at documentary records. These operations take time to clear customs, and fuel has that characteristic. So we may be looking at shipments that were cleared in March but may actually have arrived in earlier months.

“So, to say that the conflict is affecting flows, we need to wait a little longer.”

Imports in the petroleum fuel oils category, which includes diesel, reached $1.38 billion in March, up 20.5% in value. Prices rose 21.3% while volume fell 0.6% from the same month in 2025.

The data also show that imports of fertilizers totaled $1.31 billion, up 61% from a year earlier. Imported volume rose 31.1% and average prices increased 22.8%.

Barbosa of AZ Quest highlighted the broad increase in total imports in March, not only in value but also in volume, with gains of 20.1% and 18.9%, respectively. He said the figure differed from what had been seen through February, when foreign purchases still pointed to a plateau, suggesting a cooling in economic activity.

One figure that stood out was passenger car imports, which reached $1.13 billion in March, up 204% from the same month in 2025.

Barbosa noted, however, that the increase in import volumes was spread across several items, which “raises a warning flag.”

“We need more data to tell whether this is a reacceleration in activity or an isolated figure. We need to look at the other activity indicators,” he said.

Source: Valor International

A total of 5.304 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) were produced, a metric that includes both oil and natural gas. The previous record was set in October 2025, at 5.255 million boe/d.

Considering oil alone, production reached 4.061 million barrels per day (bbl/d) — an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous month and 16.4% higher than in the same month of 2025.

Natural gas production in February totaled 197.63 million cubic meters per day (m³/d), representing a 2.3% increase compared to January and a 24.5% rise compared to February 2025.

Production came from 6,079 wells, including 582 offshore and 5,497 onshore. Offshore fields accounted for 98% of oil production and 87.8% of natural gas output in the country.

Fields operated by Petrobras, either alone or in partnership with other companies, were responsible for 89.46% of total production.

Pre-salt

The pre-salt layer accounted for 80.2% of Brazil’s production, totaling 4.243 million boe/d in February. This represents a 2.3% increase compared to the previous month and a 20.1% rise compared to February 2025.

From 181 pre-salt wells, 3.264 million bbl/d of oil and 155.56 million m³/d of natural gas were produced.

The Tupi Field, in the Santos Basin, was the country’s largest producer of both oil and natural gas, with 865.98 thousand barrels per day and 42.87 million m³/d, respectively.

The facilities with the highest output were the FPSO Almirante Tamandaré, in the Búzios Field, for oil, with 197,903 bbl/d; and the FPSO Marechal Duque de Caxias, in the Mero Field, for natural gas, with 12.37 million m³/d.

Source: Agência Brasil

The operation involved two Suezmax-class tankers, the Primeway tanker and the Windsor Knutsen shuttle tanker, and forms part of the logistics chain for production from the field, located in the Santos Basin.

“This operation demonstrates T-Oil’s ability to support large-scale pre-salt projects with safety, efficiency and reliability,” Vast Chief Executive Victor Snabaitis Bomfim said.

The Bacalhau project marked ExxonMobil’s first production in Brazil after more than a century of presence in the country. The field is operated by Equinor, with a 40% stake, in partnership with ExxonMobil Brasil, also with 40%, and Petrogal Brasil, with 20%, under Brazil’s production-sharing regime, with PPSA acting as contract manager.

Vast currently serves a portfolio of 13 clients in total, including operations at the Açu Liquids Terminal. ExxonMobil is the most recent addition to that client base.

T-Oil is the only private terminal in Brazil authorized to handle Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, and is licensed to move up to 1.2 million barrels per day. In 2025, Vast handled 30.6 million tonnes of crude oil bound for foreign markets. With that volume, the terminal accounted for 48% of the crude oil exported through Brazilian terminals, maintaining its leadership in the segment.

Source: Vast

The approval marks an important step forward for the project’s first phase, although the disbursement of funds still depends on regulatory procedures prior to the formal contracting of the operation. According to the project, the fund’s support is expected to strengthen the capital structure and enhance financial predictability during implementation.

According to Porto Central’s management, the approved financing from the Merchant Marine Fund (FMM) complements an existing financial structure already in place. The company states that the project timeline does not depend on the full release of these funds, as it already has allocated equity capital.

The Merchant Marine Fund is a public policy instrument designed to develop Brazil’s shipbuilding industry and port and waterway infrastructure. Financing operations are conducted by accredited institutions such as BNDES, Caixa Econômica Federal, and Banco do Brasil, and follow specific procedures until contracts are signed.

Under program rules, the operating bank is defined during the contracting phase, within a regulatory period of up to 450 days after approval, with the possibility of a 180-day extension. Fund disbursements are typically made in installments based on the project’s physical progress and compliance with contractual milestones.

According to the Ministry of Ports and Airports, Porto Central was the largest individual project approved at the council meeting. Commenting on the decision, National Secretary of Ports Alex Ávila stated that projects of this scale expand cargo handling capacity, attract new business, and strengthen the country’s logistics integration.

With the onshore area already prepared and a quarry in operation to supply rock, the next phase of the project includes the start of offshore works, such as dredging the access channel and port basin, as well as constructing the southern breakwater.

The first phase of Porto Central is designed to enable oil exports via ship-to-ship transfers. This model enables cargo to be transferred to larger vessels, positioning the terminal as a logistics alternative for the flow of domestic production.

According to the project, contracts have already been signed with Petrobras, Equinor, CNOOC, and Repsol Sinopec, ensuring initial demand for the liquid bulk terminal planned for this stage.

In a broader perspective, Porto Central’s master plan envisions developing a multipurpose hub serving oil, natural gas, new energy, agribusiness, mining, general cargo, and industrial sectors, as well as a container terminal.

With more than 20 million square meters, the complex is among the largest port projects under development in Brazil. According to its developers, the terminal will have a depth of up to 25 meters, enabling it to accommodate large vessels and handle cargo such as crude oil, gas, grains, fertilizers, minerals, containers, and general cargo.

Source: Porto Central

The rally in benchmarks used to price millions of barrels of Middle East crude bound for Asia is raising costs for Asian refiners, forcing them to seek alternatives or further cut output in the coming months.

Dubai crude was assessed at a record $157.66 per barrel for May-loading cargoes on Tuesday (March 17), according to S&P Global Platts, surpassing the previous all-time high for Brent futures of $147.50 set in 2008.

That pushed the Dubai premium to swaps to $60.82 per barrel on Monday (March 16), compared with an average of $0.90 in February, according to Reuters data.

Similarly, Oman crude futures climbed to a record $152.58 per barrel, lifting their premium to Dubai swaps to $55.74 per barrel, versus an average of just $0.75 in February.

Dubai prices have been distorted by a wide gap with Murban futures, which settled at $114.03 per barrel on Tuesday, according to three trading sources.

Middle East crude exports to Asia fell to 11.66 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, down from nearly 19 million bpd in February and about 32% lower year-on-year, as the conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

Several Asian refiners have cut operating rates.

Tight supply

Some refining industry sources attributed the price surge to reduced deliverable supply during the Platts Market on Close (MOC) process after the agency removed three crude grades that transit the strait.

One source said the pricing had become unrepresentative, as the remaining grades — Oman and Murban — do not adequately reflect the broader benchmark used to price Middle East barrels and some Russian crude.

Another refining source said trading of Middle East crude for May-loading cargoes had stalled because Dubai and Oman benchmarks were out of alignment. The sources declined to be identified.

“Platts Dubai continues to reflect the tradable value of Middle East sour crude in the spot market,” an S&P Global Energy spokesperson said, adding that activity during the Platts MOC had been robust this month, with multiple cargo deliveries.

However, traders said TotalEnergies has been the main buyer receiving cargoes in the Platts window. The French company purchased 42 cargoes of Oman and Murban crude, or about 21 million barrels, this month, according to trade data. TotalEnergies declined to comment.

Platts said on Monday it is seeking immediate market feedback on Middle East crude deliverability and on the methodology used for its Dubai benchmark.

Source: Folha de São Paulo

Brent futures for May declined 63 cents, or 0.6%, to $99.83 a barrel at 1124 GMT, heading for a weekly increase of 8%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April declined $1.29, or 1.4%, at $94.44 a barrel, set for a 4% uptick for the week.

An India-flagged oil tanker moved out from the east of the Strait of Hormuz carrying gasoline bound for Africa, an Indian government ​official said on Friday.

“Some oil is coming through the strait, but it does not mean it will reopen,” said Tamas Varga, an oil ​analyst at brokerage PVM. “This dip should be viewed as short-lived.”

The U.S. issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and ⁠petroleum products stranded at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was a step to stabilise global energy markets roiled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

This will affect 100 ​million barrels of Russian crude, equal to almost a day’s worth of global output, according to Russia’s presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

“Russian oil was already going to buyers; ​this is not bringing additional barrels to the market but it does reduce some friction,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

“The market is starting to get very concerned that this (war) is going to last longer. The big fear is that we have severe damage to oil infrastructure, which would be a lasting loss of supply.”

The announcement on Russian oil came ​a day after the U.S. Energy Department said Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help curb skyrocketing oil prices.

That plan was ​coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, including the U.S. contribution.

Fleeting relief sparked by the IEA release, ‌however, was ⁠shattered by a re-escalation of Middle East risks, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would fight on, and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel.

Two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were struck by explosives-laden Iranian boats, Iraqi security officials said on Thursday. An Iraqi official told state media the country’s oil ports have completely stopped operations.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States stood ​to make significant money from oil prices, driven ​higher by the war with Iran. ⁠But stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was far more important, he said.

Both benchmark prices surged more than 9% on Thursday and hit their highest levels since August 2022.

Goldman Sachs predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average more than $100 ​a barrel in March and $85 in April, as energy prices remain volatile due to the Iran war, damage to ​Middle East energy infrastructure ⁠and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent is better supported than WTI because Europe is more susceptible to energy security issues, while the U.S. is able to stave off its exposure due to its domestic output, said Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG.

In another sign the disruptions may drag on, sources told Reuters that Iran had deployed ⁠about a dozen ​mines in the strait, a move that is likely to complicate the reopening of the critical ​waterway.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Sky News in an interview that the U.S. Navy, perhaps with an international coalition, would escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz when it is militarily possible.

Reporting by ​Anna Hirtenstein for Reuters

While Iranian exports to the region are marginal, Latin America’s largest economy accounts for most of the food shipments destined for the Iranian market.

“Iran’s trade relationship with Latin America is minimal. In terms of exports, it is the continent with which Iran has the fewest ties,” Ángel Saz Carranza, director of the Esade Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics (EsadeGeo), told Bloomberg Línea.

He noted that of Iran’s total global exports, only $15.4 million were shipped to South America in 2024, mainly to Brazil. In the opposite direction, Brazil is also Iran’s main supplier in Latin America.

Diplomatic relations between Brazil and Iran date back to 1903.

Iran is a full member of the BRICS bloc, originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The group has since expanded to include Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Indonesia.

Brazil’s weight in trade with Iran

Bilateral trade between Brazil and Iran is concentrated largely in agribusiness, with the South American country exporting products such as soybeans (19.3% of the total) and corn (about 68%).

The following is a breakdown of corn exports to Iran between January 2022 and December 2025. The data is provided by Datamar:

Corn Exports to Iran | Jan 2022 – Dec 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Other agricultural goods are exported on a smaller scale, including soybean oil and meal, coffee, sugar, beef and poultry. Brazilian exports to Iran total about $3 billion and account for roughly 13% of Iran’s imports.

Iran is considered the fifth-largest destination for Brazilian exports in the Middle East.

According to Francisco Américo Cassano, a professor of International Economic Relations at the Universidade Santa Cecília, Iran also maintains a strategic energy partnership in the region with Venezuela.

Cassano said a potential conflict between Iran and the United States could affect Brazil’s harvest, since the Middle Eastern country supplies fertilizers to the Brazilian market.

He also warned that any reduction in exports to Iran could generate surplus corn and soybeans that Brazil would need to redirect to other markets.

Still, “for Brazil, these exports represent 0.85% of the total. In short, Iran is directly irrelevant for Latin America,” Saz Carranza said.

Main destinations for Iranian exports

Data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) show that the main destinations for Iranian exports in South America in 2024 were:

• Brazil*: $10.1 million
• Chile: $1.51 million
• Peru: $1.21 million
• Argentina: $988,000
• Ecuador: $569,000
• Colombia: $545,000
• Bolivia: $292,000

According to the OEC, Iran’s main export products worldwide in 2024 included ethylene polymers ($1.88 billion), iron ore ($1.13 billion) and acyclic alcohol derivatives ($1.05 billion).

Other significant exports included dried fruits ($777 million) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), at $765 million.

The OEC said Iran’s top export destinations were China ($4.44 billion), Turkey ($2.45 billion), Pakistan ($1.2 billion), India ($1.06 billion) and Azerbaijan ($633 million).

Political ties

Carolina Pavese, who holds a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics, told Bloomberg Línea that Iran maintains relevant political ties in Latin America, particularly with Venezuela, which is considered its main regional ally.

She said countries such as Ecuador and Bolivia have also had political alignment with Tehran in the past, although changes in government have led to shifts in those relationships.

Pavese, who teaches at FIA Business School and the Mauá Institute of Technology in Brazil, noted that these political affinities do not necessarily translate into significant trade flows.

She added that any effects from a conflict involving Iran would likely be felt in Latin America mainly through indirect channels, such as inflation and oil prices.

Regional currencies could also come under pressure, particularly the weaker ones, which tend to face greater depreciation risk during periods of global instability.

Oil shock risk

Given the relatively small volume of trade, the main channel through which a Middle East conflict could affect Latin America has so far been disruptions in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the route through which about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass.

“In Latin America, the impact is asymmetric: net oil exporters tend to benefit from improved terms of trade and fiscal revenues, although they may face political tensions over income distribution and subsidies,” Saz Carranza said in a note.

Net importers, particularly in the Caribbean, typically face deterioration in current accounts and rising inflationary pressures, “along with fiscal dilemmas if governments try to cushion the shock through fuel or electricity subsidies.”

*For 2025, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services estimates the country imported about $84 million in Iranian products, mainly fertilizers, which accounted for 79% of the total.

By Daniel Salazar Castellanos for Bloomberg Linea

Here’s a summary of what matters for commodity markets:

METALS ​AND CRITICAL MINERALS

• China singled out its competitive edge in rare earths for the first time in ‌a five-year plan, pledging to maintain its lead and upgrade the industry.
• Beijing also said it would improve its export control system, which has caused shortages of critical minerals overseas.
• For metals more broadly, China’s push to expand clean energy may boost copper and aluminium ​demand via the massive grid build-out, some of which has already been flagged.
• China is heavily reliant on ​imports like copper and iron ore, and Beijing said it would push for more domestic ⁠exploration and mining, although it gave no examples.

OVERCAPACITY

• China again vowed to tackle overcapacity in heavy industry like steel, ​petrochemicals and copper smelting, although it stopped short of setting goals or calling for cuts to output.
• However Beijing did ​set targets for energy savings to help accelerate restructuring in these carbon-intensive industries.

• China will aim to cut carbon intensity, or how much carbon is released in economic activity, by 17%, slightly below the 18% target set the previous year. Actual carbon ​intensity only fell 12% over the last five years. By focusing only on carbon intensity, emissions can still increase ​as growth does.

Experts said the war is still in its early stages, making it hard to say whether prices will hold at higher levels. There are also questions about whether Petrobras will pass through the increases in the short term.

Before the attacks, on Friday, Petrobras’s diesel price was R$0.12 below imported product, StoneX said. By Tuesday’s close, StoneX calculated Petrobras diesel was R$0.94 below the minimum import-parity average (PPI, Brazil’s import parity price), a gap of 29.2%, and R$1.10 below the U.S. Gulf Coast average, or 35.9%. For gasoline, the gap was R$0.50, or 19.5%.

Thiago Vetter, an analyst at StoneX, said products are being repriced based on the new benchmarks. “On Tuesday, trucking companies are pointing to a R$0.20 increase in the price of diesel B, ready for consumption, compared with Monday,” he said.

Vetter said he does not expect Petrobras to raise diesel prices immediately to match international levels. The company typically waits for quotes to stabilize before making changes, to avoid passing international volatility onto the domestic market. Asked for comment, Petrobras did not respond.

The StoneX analyst said the oil company could wait until April to change diesel prices. “Petrobras should not move in a volatile moment,” he said. “The company may face some pressure from shareholders to move closer to import prices. But in an election year, it should wait longer to raise prices.”

Importers warn of wider discounts

Brazil’s fuel importers association Abicom said Petrobras diesel moved from 12% below imported levels on Friday—R$0.39—to a gap of R$1.31 on Tuesday, or 40%.

Brent crude closed on Tuesday at $81.40 a barrel, up 4.7%. Since Friday, the commodity has risen 12.31%. For the year, gains reach 33.77%. Prices accelerated after Iran threatened the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of the oil traded globally.

A Tuesday report from Itaú BBA said the Middle East conflict has widened the divide between domestic and overseas prices. “Compared with last Tuesday, import- and export-parity prices for gasoline and diesel increased sharply, leaving PPI 18% above domestic gasoline prices and 23% above domestic diesel prices.”

Abicom president, Sergio Araujo, said consumers are likely to face higher fuel prices for some time. “Oil prices should keep fluctuating above $80 a barrel. With that, pressure on derivative prices here in Brazil should follow,” he said.

Abicom expects private refineries to pass through price increases to customers—around 30% for diesel and 10% for gasoline—varying by region.

“In regions supplied mostly by Petrobras refineries, this price increase still won’t be felt. But where consumers depend on products from private refineries or imports, there will be an impact from the higher price,” Araujo said.

Pressure on Petrobras

Marcus D’Elia, a partner at consultancy Leggio, said the firm’s calculations showed gasoline was not sold at a discount before the war broke out. Diesel, however, was about R$0.30 per liter below parity. Now both are discounted, especially diesel, which is being sold about R$0.80 per liter cheaper in Brazil.

D’Elia said oil could stabilize around $80 if the war causes only a 10-day disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. “If the crisis drags on, the barrel goes to $100. Petrobras will be forced to adjust prices,” he said.

Amance Boutin, business development manager at Argus, said that in the international market, a vessel carrying Russian diesel for delivery over the next 30 days has its cargo valued at R$4.23 per liter at the Port of Itaqui, in the state of Maranhão. “That compares with Petrobras charging R$3.17 per liter,” Boutin said.

For imported gasoline, the price stands at R$2.89 per liter, versus R$2.75 per liter charged by Petrobras. “Looking at the pattern of recent years, it’s likely [Petrobras] will wait for geopolitical tension to ease, or to crystallize as a new market reality, before deciding on an adjustment.”

Pedro Rodrigues, of the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (CBIE), said it is difficult to forecast next steps in a highly volatile environment. “Since Petrobras no longer follows PPI, it’s impossible to say whether it will adjust prices in a week or 10 days. Whenever prices need to be adjusted down, the adjustment is fast. When they need to be adjusted up, it’s slow,” he said.

Before the attack, on Friday, the diesel and gasoline gaps were 12.08% and 4.96%, respectively, CBIE said. Now, gasoline sold by Petrobras shows a gap of 22.94%, or R$0.77 per liter, the center said. Diesel has a gap of 27.08%, or R$1.22 per liter.

Source: Valor International