South African Revenue Service (Sars) data, tracked by SA Canegrowers, shows that January alone recorded 24 600 tons of deep-sea sugar imports from countries including Brazil, India and Thailand.

This volume for a single month exceeded the total imports recorded for the entire years of 2020, 2021 and 2022 combined.

Imports accelerated markedly in 2025, with nearly 200 000 tons of refined sugar entering the country, driven by low global sugar prices, a stronger rand/dollar exchange rate, and inadequate import tariff protections. Early 2026 figures indicate the trend is continuing, with recent tariff adjustments failing to curb the inflow.

The following time-series analysis tracks the outbound volumes of Brazilian sugar exports to South Africa, according to Datamar statistics derived from the DataLiner market intelligence tool:

Sugar Exports to South Africa | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

SA Canegrowers chairman Higgins Mdluli highlighted the market dynamics.

“Sugar is being imported by opportunistic agents who take advantage of a low global sugar price and weak local tariff protections, but who sell this sugar locally at similar prices to locally produced sugar,” Mdluli said.

“The profits go to the import agents and result in no savings to consumers in South Africa. This, in turn, means that jobs are being exported at the expense of the SA sugar industry.”

He said the displacement was costing the local industry heavily.

“This surge of imported refined sugar is displacing locally grown and produced sugar from the South African market,” Mdluli said.

The sector lost more than R7 000 per ton of displaced local sugar, resulting in a combined impact of R1.5 billion over the 2025/26 season.

He said the industry supported over a million livelihoods and served as a cornerstone for rural communities.

Mdluli stressed the need for robust protections: “We need a tariff framework that effectively ensures the domestic industry can compete with unfairly subsidised imports. Ensuring a fair trading environment for locally produced sugar is critical if the industry is to remain viable and continue supporting growers, workers and communities.”

SA Canegrowers has urged the International Trade Administration Commission (Itac) to finalise its tariff review and implement adequate safeguards.

The crisis coincides with other challenges, including the potential liquidation of Tongaat Hulett, South Africa’s only stand-alone sugar refinery. Tongaat Hulett operates three mills and produces white sugar essential for food and beverage manufacturers due to its flavour profile – the precise category flooding the market from abroad.

Last week, Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau engaged directly with the sugar industry and Itac representatives.

Mdluli called for diplomatic intervention following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent state visit to Brazil.

“On the back of the state visit to Brazil, we urge President Cyril Ramaphosa to discuss this matter with President Da Silva and to insist that sugar imports to South Africa from Brazil are stopped immediately, as the country is self-sufficient in sugar production,” he said.

He added that resolving the Tongaat Hulett crisis was essential for the stability of the industry.

“We remain hopeful that a workable solution can be found. However, even if Tongaat Hulett is rescued, it will operate in an environment where weak import tariffs undermine its core business, unless the tariff is urgently resolved,” Mdluli said.

Source:Southen Africa’s Freight News

Data compiled by Datamar’s Business Intelligence department indicates that Brazil exported over 31 million tons of sugar throughout the full year 2025. The following chart provides a comparison of monthly sugar shipments from Brazil to international markets, according to data available on the DataLiner platform:

Sugar Exports | Jan 2022 – Dec 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

While February 2025 showed a daily average of 91,257.5 tonnes shipped, totaling 1,825,149.7 tonnes over 20 business days, early February 2026 saw the daily average rise to 131,384.7 tonnes. Cumulatively, Brazil has exported 1,313,847.3 tonnes of sugar and molasses.

Despite the sharp increase in volume, average prices remain under pressure year over year. The average price per tonne fell 22.6%, from USD 477.8 in February 2025 to USD 370.1 this month.

Even so, higher shipment volumes supported growth in average daily revenue. Daily export revenue rose 11.5%, from USD 43.607 million to USD 48.624 million. As a result, cumulative revenue over the first ten business days of February 2026 reached USD 486.238 million, compared with USD 872.146 million recorded for the full month of February 2025.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

Despite the annual drop, the result was the third-highest on record for January. Agribusiness accounted for 42.8% of Brazil’s total exports during the period.

According to Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro, the sector’s performance reflects advances in animal health standards and trade negotiations. Highlights include Brazil’s recognition as free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination and the removal of additional U.S. tariffs on products such as fresh beef.

According to the ministry, these factors expand market access and help sustain agribusiness performance even amid lower international prices.

Imports fall, but agribusiness surplus remains

Brazilian imports of agricultural products totaled US$ 1.63 billion in January, down 11.2% compared with 2025. The main imported items were paper, wheat, salmon, fibers, and textile products.

The decline was driven mainly by lower purchases of cocoa, wheat, and malt. At the same time, Brazil imported US$ 940 million in fertilizers and US$ 301.3 million in crop protection products.

Check below the main origins of fertilizers imported by Brazil in 2025. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Main Origins of Fertilizers | 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

As a result, the agribusiness trade surplus stood at US$ 9.12 billion, slightly below the level recorded a year earlier.

Prices fall, but export volumes rise

According to the ministry, performance was affected by an 8.6% drop in average international prices, partially offset by a 7% increase in export volumes.

The ministry noted that global indicators confirm the downward price trend. The Food Price Index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations fell 0.4% in January compared with December and 0.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s index declined 3.1% over the past 12 months.

These indices measure average changes in international food prices and help explain the reduction in export values despite higher shipment volumes.

Meat exports lead and set a record

Animal protein exports posted record levels during the month. Fresh beef was the leading product, with US$ 1.3 billion in external sales.

The six main agribusiness export sectors in January were:

* Meat: US$ 2.58 billion
* Soy complex: US$ 1.66 billion
* Forest products: US$ 1.38 billion
* Cereals, flours, and preparations: US$ 1.12 billion
* Coffee: US$ 1.10 billion
* Sugar and ethanol complex: US$ 750 million

Together, these segments accounted for 79.8% of total exports, totaling US$ 8.6 billion.

China remains the leading destination

China remained the main destination for Brazilian agribusiness exports, with US$ 2.16 billion in purchases, equivalent to 20% of total exports for the month and a 5.4% year-on-year increase.

The European Union followed with US$ 1.69 billion (down 11%), while the United States ranked third with US$ 705.5 million (down 31%).

The ministry highlighted export growth to countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, the Philippines, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Chile.

Expansion in Southeast Asia

Exports to countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) rose 5.7% in January, indicating a stronger presence of Brazilian agribusiness in markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.

According to the ministry, diversifying export destinations helps reduce dependence on a limited number of markets and commodities.

Souce: Monitor do Mercado

In value terms, Brazilian ethanol exports totaled US$ 976.6 million in 2025, down 8% from US$ 1.13 billion in 2024.

Traditionally, the domestic market absorbs most of the country’s ethanol production. In 2025, internal consumption reached about 19 billion liters of hydrated ethanol (sold directly at fuel pumps) and 13 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol (blended into gasoline). The mandatory blending rate for anhydrous ethanol in gasoline increased from 27% to 30% as of August 1, 2025, which is expected to further boost domestic demand. Experts estimate the new blend will consume an additional 1 billion liters per year.

In addition, ethanol inventories at mills in Brazil’s Center-South region fell sharply during the 2025/2026 harvest. According to União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar e Bioenergia (Unica), stocks on January 1 totaled 7.07 billion liters, a 19.7% decrease compared to the same period in 2025.

With national ethanol production also down by about 5%, totaling 30.84 billion liters, hydrated ethanol output dropped 8% to 19 billion liters, while anhydrous production remained relatively stable at 11.7 billion liters. Together, these factors significantly reduced the surplus available for export.

International trade

In international trade, South Korea remains the leading buyer of Brazilian ethanol. In 2025, the country imported 772 million liters, well ahead of the United States, which imported 255 million liters, and the Netherlands, which imported 212 million liters.

“For about 15 years, South Koreans have been Brazil’s main customers, driven by an energy policy more open to biofuels and a preference for lower-carbon products, a characteristic of sugarcane ethanol,” explained Maurício Muruci, an ethanol, sugar, and biodiesel analyst at Safras & Mercado.

According to him, the ranking may change in 2026. “The Netherlands should take second place, favored by tax issues that could further reduce the United States’ share,” he said. The U.S. government is also considering expanding mandates for domestically produced biofuels, which could limit imports.

Although corn ethanol has gained ground in the domestic market in recent years, production volumes are still insufficient to significantly increase supply. In the 2025/2026 harvest, corn accounted for 18% of national biofuel output, while sugarcane remained dominant at about 81%.

In absolute terms, Brazil produced roughly 2.6 billion liters of corn-based anhydrous ethanol, compared to 11.7 billion liters from sugarcane. For hydrated ethanol, corn accounted for 4.2 billion liters, versus about 19 billion liters from sugarcane.

Given this scenario, exports in 2026 are expected to remain limited, with a slight recovery to around 1.75 billion liters, according to Safras & Mercado. The forecast reflects the mills’ strategy to focus on the domestic market, where scale is larger and prices are more attractive.

Sugar supports mills’ cash flow

In the 2025/2026 harvest, sugar’s strong performance continued to sustain mills’ cash flow. In this segment, exports are more relevant than domestic sales. Each year, 30 to 33 million tonnes are shipped abroad, compared to 9.5 million tonnes consumed domestically.

The chart below uses Datamar’s DataLiner data to illustrate sugar shipments, measured in tonnes, from Brazil. Readers may request a demo for further insights.

Sugar Exports | 2023 – 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

With stronger ethanol demand expected, the traditional production mix — usually around 52% ethanol and 48% sugar — is expected to shift slightly next season to 53% ethanol and 47% sugar. Estimates suggest mills can earn 25% to 30% more selling ethanol domestically than producing sugar for export.

Safras & Mercado projects sugarcane crushing will reach 610 million tonnes in the 2026/27 harvest, up from 605 million tonnes in 2025/26. Average sugar prices, however, are expected to decline from 17–19 cents per pound in 2025 to 13–14 cents per pound throughout 2026.

Source: CNN Brasil

Average daily exports increased to 108,605.3 tonnes from 93,739.2 tonnes in January 2025. In cumulative terms, shipments totaled 1,737,684.3 tonnes, while total exports in January last year reached 2,062,261.7 tonnes, in a month that had 22 business days.

The chart below uses Datamar’s DataLiner data to illustrate sugar shipments, measured in tonnes, from Brazil. Readers may request a demo for further insights.

Sugar Exports | 2023 – 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Despite the higher shipment volumes, export revenue declined on a daily average basis. In January 2025, average daily revenue from sugar and molasses exports stood at $45.440 million, but fell to $39.409 million at the start of 2026, a drop of 13.3%. So far this year, Brazil has generated $630.537 million from exports of the products, compared with $999.684 million recorded over the whole of January last year.

The weaker revenue performance is directly linked to a sharp decline in international prices. The average price per tonne of exported sugar fell 25.1%, from $484.8 per tonne in January 2025 to $362.9 per tonne at the start of 2026, limiting Brazil’s export earnings from sugar and molasses despite the increase in shipment volumes.

Source: Noticias Agrícolas 

“I will propose a temporary suspension of the sugar inward processing regime to ease pressures on sugar producers,” the European ‌Commissioner for Agriculture and Food, Christophe Hansen, said on X late on Monday, Jan 26.

Hansen ​did not disclose when any suspension might begin.

MIXED REACTION

The inward processing relief (IPR) scheme allows companies to import sugar at zero duty and without limits, provided the sugar is refined or ‍processed into food products and then re-exported outside the European Union, but the announcement drew mixed reactions.

European sugar beet growers lobby CIBE expressed strong support for suspension of the IPR scheme, saying it would be timely ⁠and necessary.

“It will provide the right signal and some relief on a very depressed EU ‍sugar market,” the group said on X.

Producers have said imports contributed to a supply glut that led EU ‌sugar ‌prices to slump to their lowest in at least three years.

But the sugar fermentation industry, sugar refineries and sugar user groups said the fall in prices was because of sugar beet overproduction and called on the Commission not to suspend the IPR scheme.

“Suspending inward processing relief would ⁠raise production costs for ⁠EU manufacturers, hindering their ​ability to compete internationally and threatening their ability to remain in global markets,” they said in a joint statement.

Raw sugar imported into the EU under IPR in the 2024/25 marketing year rose 19% from the ‍previous year to 587,000 metric tons, 95% of which came from Brazil, European Commission data showed.

The following chart compares monthly Brazilian sugar ore exports bound to the EU from January to November over the last four years, according to DataLiner data.

Sugar Exports to EU | Jan-Nov | 2022-2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

White sugar imports under IPR were up 5% at 155,000 tons in 2024/25, with 43% coming from Brazil, followed by Morocco, ​Egypt and Ukraine, the data showed.

European sugar producers have ‍raised concerns about unfair competition and the potential impact of a trade deal with the Mercosur bloc of South American countries, ​including a larger sugar quota.

The increase in the biodiesel blending mandate to 15% (B15) in 2025, coupled with price volatility in recent years, has prompted companies in the sector to publicly press for import liberalisation. FPBio argues that such a move would be directly incompatible with commitments to foster domestic production set out in Brazil’s Future Fuels Law (Law 14,993/2024).

In a statement, FPBio said that, if approved in its current form, the measure could disrupt the sector, discourage investment and undermine regulatory predictability, which it described as essential for a highly regulated and capital-intensive industry.

Brazil is currently one of the world’s largest biodiesel producers, with a programme consolidated over more than two decades that fully meets domestic demand and maintains high levels of idle installed capacity, estimated at around 50%, with no signs of supply risk. According to FPBio, an indiscriminate opening of the market could squeeze profit margins at domestic plants, reduce incentives for new investment and weaken support for local production.

“In recent years, Brazilian biodiesel has reached record production levels, produced mainly from soybean oil, beef tallow and other regional feedstocks, supporting the income of thousands of rural producers,” FPBio said in the statement.

Last Friday (May 16), fuel sector associations issued a joint statement calling for an end to restrictions on imports, arguing that current rules limit competition and freedom of negotiation.

Signatories included the Brazilian Institute of Oil and Natural Gas (IBP), the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom), the National Federation of Fuel, Natural Gas and Biofuels Distributors (Brasilcom), the National Federation of Fuel and Lubricant Trade (Fecombustíveis), the National Union of Retail Transport Fuel Resellers (SindTRR) and the Federation of Mobility Companies of Rio de Janeiro State (Semov). The groups said there was no “technical or economic basis to restrict access to additional supply sources that increase market contestability and contribute to competitive discipline in the pricing of diesel B.”

The issue has split the federal government, with parts of the MME defending continued protection for domestic production, while the Finance Ministry has voiced support for opening the market. The matter is expected to be discussed at the next meeting of the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE).

The debate centres on the potential release of up to 20% of demand for supply with imported biodiesel at a time when the blending mandate is set to rise from 15% to 16% from March, a move that could further pressure prices.

FPBio reiterated that regulatory predictability and the strengthening of domestic production are essential to ensure investment, energy security and fair prices for consumers, without compromising the environmental and social goals that have made Brazil’s biodiesel programme a widely cited success.

Source: CNN Brasil

The drop in shipments occurred despite higher production in Brazil’s 2025/26 crop season and amid a recovery in global sugar supply.

Revenue from Brazilian sugar exports fell 30% to US$13 billion. The decline in revenue was steeper than the fall in volume due to lower international prices.

The chart below uses Datamar’s DataLiner data to illustrate sugar shipments, measured in tonnes, from Brazil. Readers may request a demo for further insights.

Sugar Exports | 2023 – 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Shipments to major buyers declined, including Indonesia, where Brazilian sugar exports fell 43.6% to 1.9 million tonnes; the United Arab Emirates, down 36.9% to 1.6 million tonnes; and India, which saw a 27.4% drop to 2.4 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, other countries increased their purchases of Brazilian sugar, boosting their share among export destinations. This was the case with China, where shipments rose 44% to 4.3 million tonnes, making the country the top destination for Brazilian sugar in 2025.

Sugar exports to Bangladesh also increased, up 15.7% to 1.9 million tonnes.

Source: Globo Rural

The chart below uses Datamar’s DataLiner data to illustrate sugar shipments, measured in tonnes, from Brazil. Readers may request a demo for further insights below.

Sugar Exports | 2023 – 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

U.S. President Donald Trump has hit Brazilian organic sugar on two fronts. In addition to the 40% surcharge that came into effect in August 2025, combined with the 10% duty applied by the United States on exports from all countries, the product also lost access to the so-called “Specialty Quota” for organic sugar. As a result, exporters no longer benefit from the exemption on the US$327-per-tonne tariff that previously applied to a quota of 240,000 tonnes.

The United States accounts for a significant share of global consumption of organic products. The use of organic sugar is mandatory in certified organic processed foods such as granola, cereal bars and yogurts, meaning that without it, U.S. manufacturers cannot market these products as organic.

Native, part of the Balbo Group, began seeking alternative markets and was starting to gain traction in Mexico until a setback at the end of the year. On December 31, the Mexican government announced the removal of import tariff exemptions for several products, including sugar.

“We managed to ship ten containers to Mexico and there were requests for more, but we will no longer be able to export,” said Leontino Balbo Júnior, vice president of Native Produtos Orgânicos. Following the decision, Mexico began charging a 200% tariff on organic sugar.

According to Balbo, the company’s push into the Mexican market began in 2025, when it encouraged a U.S. distributor to open operations in the country. The distributor hired Mexican staff who were trained by Native, and sales had started to show results. The company had expected to export up to 3,000 tonnes by June 2026. By comparison, U.S. consumption of organic sugar is estimated at around 300,000 tonnes per year.

At present, Canada is the only alternative market the company has been able to rely on, as Canadian food manufacturers have received more orders from U.S. clients seeking to supply demand in the United States. Even so, volumes remain limited. Native, which previously sold around 6,000 tonnes of organic sugar annually to Canada, now expects shipments to rise to about 9,000 tonnes per year.

With no other major market available, the company is currently holding around 30,000 tonnes in inventory, a high level for a business that had expected to export 40,000 tonnes to the U.S. in the current season and clear stocks by April. “The distributor does not have the cash to buy. There is no working capital,” Balbo said.

Another Brazilian organic sugar exporter, Jalles Machado, is still managing to sell to the United States. “We continue selling to our customers because the United States needs the product. But the cost is being passed on to retail,” said Rodrigo Penna, the company’s chief financial officer.

According to Penna, the company is trying to expand sales to other markets, but without significant breakthroughs so far. “The tariff makes sugar more expensive for consumers and does not help U.S. producers, who do not produce organic sugar,” he said.

Source: Globo Rural

The outlook was released on Tuesday (30) by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at the University of São Paulo (USP) as part of its sugar market analysis. According to Cepea researchers, the global sugar market is heading toward a looser supply scenario during the 2026/2027 harvest.

Brazil, the largest sugar producer and exporter, expects an increase in sugarcane milling in the Central-South region. The country produces sugar mainly from cane, which is also used for ethanol production.

Cepea says the Brazilian sugarcane production could exceed 620 million metric tons, but the increase does not necessarily guarantee a strong rise in sugar output. With the global market projected to have ample sugar availability among major producers, the sector is likely to adjust the mix between sugar and ethanol.

Brazil is expected to produce between 41 and 44 million tons of sugar in the 2026/2027 harvest, up from 39.17 million tons in the current 2025/26 season, according to data from sugar and ethanol industry group UNICA. Cepea notes that the prevailing outlook for the international market points to moderate sugar prices, influenced by factors such as more comfortable stock levels and competition among exporters.

Source: ANBA