The mandate has been a ticking time bomb since it was introduced in 2017 to curb overcapacity and cut emissions. China first hit that production ceiling last year, which raised questions about whether the rest of the world could step in to meet demand for the metal that is used in everything from aircraft and cars to food packaging and solar panels.

Fast-forward to March and traders are now bracing for a full-blown crisis that could push prices to record levels after Iran attacked two of the biggest aluminium smelters in the Middle East, a region that accounts for 9 per cent of global output.

The weekend strikes on two sites in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates pushed futures on the London Metal Exchange to a four-year high of $US3492 a tonne on Monday. Prices are rapidly approaching the record of $US4073 a tonne reached in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Before the strikes, the Middle East conflict and Iran’s effective blockade of the Straight of Hormuz had already pushed aluminium markets to the brink because smelters in the Persian Gulf had been unable to ship out the metal or bring in key raw materials such as alumina and bauxite.

“The closure has been forcing consumers to dip into inventories, which are now largely eroded,” said ANZ senior commodities strategist Daniel Hynes. “This has left the market with little buffer to cushion any supply shocks.”

Aluminium is the most widely used metal after steel and is made by mining bauxite, which is then refined into alumina powder before being smelted into metal.

Smelters typically keep enough of those raw materials to cover about a month’s production. So as the war enters its fifth week, more operators are expected to cut output to keep their plants running because shutting down and restarting an aluminium smelter is a lengthy and costly task.

Qatar’s Qatalum was the first smelter to go offline on March 3 and is now operating at 60 per cent of its capacity – a safe, full restart is expected to take up to 12 months. Aluminium Bahrain has shut down about 19 per cent of its capacity.

Supply chain carnage

Other aluminium producers in the UAE are facing logistical difficulties because of the risk of missile and drone attacks. While Saudi Arabia and Aluminium Bahrain are shipping the metal through Jeddah port on the Red Sea to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, it is costing them more money.

The ongoing conflict is also threatening the expansion plans of major companies in the region, with several projects in Saudi Arabia at various stages of development. Strategists warn that there are now higher risks of delays or abandonment of these projects from the conflict, which is escalating by the day.

“The latest attacks increase the probability of a prolonged disruption scenario, where supply losses could persist even if geopolitical tensions ease,” said ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey.

“Any prolonged outages would further tighten the market, especially given the region’s limited raw material inventories and dependence on uninterrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.”

The conflict has also highlighted the vulnerability of aluminium’s supply chain, with the Gulf emerging as a pivotal production and export hub over the past decade.

The smelting process is energy intensive, so operators have benefited from the abundance of cheap gas in the Middle East. Aluminium output in the region has more than doubled since 2010 and exports now meet 18 per cent of global demand outside of China.

A sustained spike in the price of the metal is expected to heap further pressure on manufacturers already grappling with surging energy costs.

Western carmakers are reportedly struggling to secure supplies, which has sparked “panic buying”, with many manufacturers drawing on inventories. Japanese automotive suppliers have warned of production cuts within four months if supply remains disrupted.

The increase in prices has boosted the few major ASX-listed aluminium stocks over the past week. Alcoa has rallied 19 per cent, while Rio Tinto and South32 have both jumped about 10 per cent each.

“We expect that aluminum will be one of the commodities most significantly affected by ongoing conflict in the Middle East,” said UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw.

UBS noted that Alcoa offers the greatest leverage to aluminium prices given it is a pure-play producer, with facilities outside the Persian Gulf. The broker forecast a 10 per cent rise in aluminium prices would result in a 23 per cent increase in the stock’s fair value.

However, UBS said South32 offered “the most compelling upside” in the sector due to the miner’s attractive copper exposure.

Reporting by Alex Gluyas for Financial Review

Founded during the Getúlio Vargas era, the company has been under pressure from investors due to its high debt levels, driven by expansion projects and intensified competition from Chinese steel in the domestic market.

Market analysts say CSN is likely to benefit in the coming months from measures announced by Brazil’s federal government in February targeting Chinese steel producers. At the time, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) imposed antidumping duties on steel sold by Chinese companies for a period of five years.

In international trade, dumping occurs when a company exports products at prices below production costs, creating unfair competition in foreign markets. The practice is considered illegal under international trade rules and has been attributed by Brazilian steelmakers to Chinese producers since 2024.

The following overview highlights the monthly inbound volumes of Brazilian steel imports from China between January 2023 and January 2026, according to statistics from Datamar’s DataLiner platform:

Steel Imports from China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Cheap Chinese steel has weighed heavily on Brazil’s domestic market, with imports capturing roughly 30% of local steel sales and reducing the profitability of domestic producers. The impact has been particularly pronounced for CSN. Because the company specializes in higher value-added steel products, freight costs represent a smaller share of competitors’ final prices, intensifying price competition.

“We are facing the challenge of extremely high interest rates and disorderly and unnecessary competition from imported products that greatly undermines potential growth and investment by entrepreneurial companies,” CSN chairman and controlling shareholder Benjamin Steinbruch told investors a month before the government imposed the antidumping measures.

With additional tariffs ranging from $323 to $670 per tonne of Chinese steel imports, CSN could see a short-term improvement in revenue. The company did not respond to requests for comment on the impact of the measures.

“These antidumping measures may provide some relief for the sector as a whole, although there is a risk that the volumes currently coming from China could be replaced by imports from other regions, such as South Korea,” said Daniel Sasson, a commodities analyst at Itaú BBA. South Korea is Brazil’s second-largest exporter of flat steel products — the same segment in which CSN operates.

Heavy debt pressures

By the third quarter of 2025, CSN had net debt of 37.5 billion reais ($7.5 billion), equivalent to 3.14 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).

By comparison, rival Brazilian steelmakers Usiminas and Gerdau had leverage ratios of 0.16 and 0.81, respectively.

Adding to the pressure, about 75% of CSN’s debt matures by 2028. Updated figures are expected to be released on March 11, when the company reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results.

In an effort to reduce debt, CSN announced in January that it plans to divest key assets this year, including its cement business and part of its infrastructure operations, such as port and rail assets in Brazil’s Southeast.

According to Steinbruch, the company is even seeking partners for its core steelmaking business.

CSN’s financial difficulties have already forced the billionaire to reconsider the group’s growth strategy. Over the past five years, the company spent at least 9.7 billion reais acquiring businesses in energy, logistics and cement — deals that analysts say contributed to the company’s high debt burden.

Steinbruch is now seeking buyers for the entire cement division and parts of CSN’s logistics operations, aiming to raise between 15 billion and 18 billion reais.

If successful, the sales could reduce the company’s debt to about 19.5 billion reais, or roughly 1.95 times EBITDA — a level that would be viewed more favorably by major credit rating agencies. Moody’s and Fitch both downgraded CSN’s ratings in recent weeks.

The company is also searching for partners for its steelmaking operations, which, according to a person familiar with the matter, require at least $1 billion in modernization investments.

Late last year, CSN signed an agreement with Brazil’s development bank BNDES to invest 1.13 billion reais in upgrading its main steel plant in Volta Redonda, in Rio de Janeiro state.

Asset sales face hurdles

Despite its infrastructure assets, analysts say CSN may struggle to sell such a diverse portfolio to a single investor, as the company hopes — particularly if the transactions involve minority stakes.

“It may not be so straightforward to find an investor willing to partner with the group and gain exposure to such a wide range of different assets,” said Sasson. “Selling the cement business alone appears to be simpler.”

According to Itaú BBA estimates, a full sale of the cement unit could generate around 10 billion reais.

Industry observers also note that Steinbruch’s reputation for aggressive corporate disputes could complicate negotiations with potential partners. Over the years, he has clashed with companies including Vale, Ternium, Gerdau, Nippon Steel and Sumitomo.

Currently, more than half of CSN’s profits come from mining operations.

Artur Bontempo, an iron ore and steel analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said the company will also need to modernize its iron ore processing operations in the coming years to remain competitive. CSN is also planning to invest 13 billion reais in an expansion project, which could further strain its finances.

“CSN first needs to deal with this expansion before turning to its existing operations and deciding how to maintain them going forward,” Bontempo said.

CSN is the world’s seventh-largest exporter of iron ore and Brazil’s second-largest producer, behind Vale.

Source: Folha de S. Paulo

The company is expected to sign the concession contract within the next 90 days and carry out operational upgrades over the following two years, according to Alan Jones Tavares, Fomento’s ports and logistics manager.

Fomento plans to invest up to 55 million reais ($55 million) in the North Yard over the 15-year concession period. In the coming days, the company will submit investment plans and required documentation to the Rio Grande do Norte Port Authority (Codern) and Brazil’s waterway regulator, ANTAQ.

Tavares said the project marks a milestone not only for the company but for the state of Rio Grande do Norte. Although the state has previously attempted to export iron ore, operations were unsuccessful due to a lack of port infrastructure adapted for bulk mineral handling.

“This is different from what was done before. We are going to put Rio Grande do Norte on the global mining map, not just the Brazilian one,” he said.

The company expects annual exports of about 2,200 metric tons of iron ore starting in 2029. During the initial ramp-up phase in the second half of 2028, the goal will be to reach the highest possible shipment volumes to key international buyers.

The following breakdown identifies the key export hubs for iron ore during the first month of 2026, according to newly released data from Datamar:

Iron Ore Export Ports | January 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

While projected volumes are modest compared with Brazil’s large-scale mining operations, Tavares said the ore extracted in Rio Grande do Norte has distinct geological characteristics sought by steel producers.

“It differs from most of the ore we are used to seeing in places like the Quadrilátero Ferrífero in Minas Gerais or the Carajás mines. It has unique geological features that make it richer and less contaminating,” he said.

The mineral, officially classified as pellet feed and informally referred to as “green ore,” was identified through geological studies commissioned by Fomento in the Borborema Potiguar microregion, which includes the municipalities of Tangará, Serra Caiada, Sítio Novo and Senador Elói de Souza.

Development of the deposit is part of the company’s Ferro Potiguar project and is expected to proceed in parallel with port preparations.

According to Tavares, the mining project is currently undergoing environmental licensing with the state’s environmental agency, Idema. The process also involves the relocation of families living in areas designated for extraction.

He said mining operations and the ore processing plant will move forward once the relocation process is completed, aligning with port upgrade works to ensure synchronized start-up.

“Everything needs to move in step — production, logistics to the export point and port operations. It all has to function like clockwork to ensure we can handle output efficiently,” he said.

Source: Tribuna do Norte

As part of its trade defense strategy, Gecex confirmed the application of five-year antidumping duties on imports of pre-painted steel from China and India, citing artificially low prices that have hurt Brazilian producers.

The committee also raised import tariffs to 25% on nine steel product categories, identified under Brazil’s Mercosur Common Nomenclature (NCM), for a 12-month period. The move is intended to protect the domestic steel sector amid global oversupply.

At the same time, Gecex approved zero import tariffs for a list of essential products, seeking to lower production costs and ease access to healthcare. The exemptions include a drug used to treat depression and inputs for the chemical, textile and agricultural sectors.

The panel also approved changes to tariffs on capital goods and information technology and telecommunications equipment, focusing on products that already have domestic manufacturing in Brazil. The goal, the government said, is to strengthen local supply chains while remaining in line with World Trade Organization rules.

For goods that are not produced domestically, Brazil will continue to apply its ex-tariff regime, which allows imports to enter at a zero tariff rate.

A transition period was set for products that currently face zero tariffs but are not covered by the ex-tariff system. The new rules will take effect on March 1, giving importers time to apply for the special regime. During the review process, which is expected to take about 120 days, provisional approval may be granted.

Source: Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC)

Data from the Brazilian Steel Institute (Instituto Aço Brasil) show that between 2021 and 2022, imports of flat steel products fell from 4 million tonnes (Mt) to 3.1 Mt. Since then, however, the trend has reversed. In 2025, volumes are expected to reach 5.7 Mt—the highest level since 2010 (5.8 Mt)—a 20.5% increase from 2024 (4.8 Mt).

From January to November 2025, Brazil imported 5.4 Mt of flat steel, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. As a result of this scenario, steelmakers canceled R$2.5 billion in investments in the Brazilian market, laid off 5,100 workers, and shut down four blast furnaces, one steel mill, and five semi-integrated plants (mini mills).

In addition, the quarterly EBITDA of member companies fell 51.7% in the third quarter of this year compared with the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year. Over the same comparison, the EBITDA margin declined by 7.7 percentage points.

According to Lucas Sharau, economist and partner at iHUB Investimentos, among the companies most affected by imports are Usinas Siderúrgicas de Minas Gerais (Usiminas) and Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN), because flat rolled steel predominates in imports. Gerdau, meanwhile, is relatively less affected, as it has less exposure to this segment and a greater focus on long steel products.

Triggers for a Turnaround

In 2024, the federal government implemented a quota-tariff mechanism aimed at containing steel imports. The system, renewed in 2025 with the inclusion of more products, helped mitigate the issue but was not enough to solve the sector’s problems, as Brazil’s trade agreements with other countries and regions, special customs regimes, and state-level tax incentives continue to facilitate imports.

In ongoing dialogue with federal authorities, the Brazilian Steel Institute believes the country will impose new trade defense measures in 2026. In this context, Pedro Galdi, an investment analyst at the AGF platform, reiterates expectations that around mid-February, higher import tariffs will be approved for certain types of steel—especially Chinese products—which would be crucial to give the industry some breathing room.

According to Galdi, there are also rumors that China may tighten controls on exports of surplus steel, which would help reduce pressure on the sector. However, he notes that this is a problematic issue to change, as China is the world’s largest steel producer and is unlikely to experience strong economic growth in the short term—something that could otherwise ease the situation.

For Galdi, a turnaround in Brazil’s steel industry will depend on higher import tariffs, an improvement in the domestic economy, and the continuation of U.S. tariff policies, which intensify market competition and trade diversion.

When listing potential recovery triggers, Sharau also highlights an expansion in domestic demand and the adoption of more effective trade defense measures. He adds that a reduction in interest rates—lowering the cost of capital and unlocking investments—and a weakening of the real against the dollar would also help narrow the price gap between domestic and imported steel.

Recovery Would Be Gradual

If these positive factors materialize, Brazil’s steel industry is likely to resume hiring and investment cycles. However, this recovery would occur in stages.

“First, capacity reactivation is expected. Then, smaller projects. And later, larger capex,” explains the iHUB Investimentos partner. According to Sharau, without the aforementioned triggers—or until there is greater predictability around these variables—the sector will remain defensive for longer, with investments on hold.

In this context, the AGF analyst notes that Gerdau has long warned about the risks of maintaining a hostile environment driven by imported steel. He adds that an investment strategy does not change overnight, which is why the company decided to reduce investments in Brazil, close plants, and lay off workers.

Galdi reinforces that other players, such as Usiminas and CSN, are adjusting investments with a focus on cost reduction. According to him, a shift in strategy is unlikely unless it is confirmed that the demand lost to imports can be recovered. “It is worth noting that imported steel already accounts for about 25% of the steel consumed in the country,” he emphasizes.

Source: Diário do Comércio

The strategy under evaluation by the federal government calls for raising import tariffs as early as 2026, with a focus on steel from China — currently sold in Brazil with dumping margins of 103%. The measure has a dual purpose: reinforcing protection for domestic steelmakers and generating up to R$14 billion to help close the federal budget.

The fiscal need is immediate. To reach the zero primary deficit target set by the 2025 Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), the government still needs R$27.1 billion in the last quarter of 2025 alone.

Imports surge and pressure Brazilian steelmakers

The flow of Chinese steel into Brazil rose sharply this year. In the first quarter, flat-steel imports increased 42% year-on-year, and some product types recorded a Chinese share of 91.5% of total imports.

Steelmakers estimate that the country will end 2025 with 6.3 million tonnes of imported steel — a record figure that reduces the use of Brazil’s own installed production capacity.

Industry associations such as Aço Brasil say competition with Chinese steel occurs under asymmetric conditions, with subsidies and industrial policies that make price competition impossible. With squeezed margins and lower domestic demand, companies have begun reassessing investments and expansion projects.

The association describes the current situation as an “import surge,” with direct effects on employment, production, and tax revenue — especially in industrial hubs such as southern Rio de Janeiro, home to several of the country’s largest steel plants.

Imagining a more favorable scenario, Brazil’s economic team is evaluating higher import taxes on cars and steel. Both sectors are being hit by a “flood” of Chinese products.

The massive influx of Chinese electric cars into Brazil is transforming the domestic automotive industry, creating fierce competition driven by price and advanced technology. The impact is double: on one hand, it accelerates market electrification; on the other, it pressures established automakers and the government to adapt quickly.

Brands such as BYD and GWM rapidly gained significant market share, with BYD alone holding around 75% of the electric-vehicle (EV) market in Brazil in 2025. This “invasion” has forced traditional automakers to rethink their strategies, including their pricing strategies.

Companies are building or adapting factories in Bahia and São Paulo, representing multibillion-real investments and the creation of thousands of direct and indirect jobs. In contrast, according to recent data, China’s trade surplus in the first 11 months of this year reached US$1 trillion.

In this context, Brazil has become one of the world’s largest markets for Chinese electrified vehicles, surpassing Russia and Belgium. Recently, fearing a similar influx of Asian cars, the United States raised its own EV tariffs to above 100%.

Export decline hits domestic market

The drop in steel exports to the United States has uniquely affected the domestic industry, where Instituto Aço Brasil projected a 0.6% decline in crude steel production in 2025. Yet despite this situation, Brazil’s steel industry remains optimistic about the measures being pursued by Brazilian trade negotiators.

Brazil uses import quotas, so that when imported volumes exceed the limit, a 25% tariff applies to several types of steel products. This rate is applied to volumes above the quotas to protect the domestic industry, while products within the quotas may face lower tariffs (9% to 16%). The measure was extended to 2025 and covers various steel goods.

The measure responds to requests made by Abimetal-Sicetel (the Brazilian Association of the Steel Processing Industry and the National Union of Drawn and Rolled Ferrous Metals Industry), one of the organizations representing Brazil’s steel-processing sector.

The extension applies to six products manufactured by companies represented by the entity: galvanized low- and medium-carbon steel wire; high-carbon steel wire coated with other common metals; wire of different steel alloys; scaffold, formwork, or shoring material; welded galvanized steel mesh and grating at points of intersection; and steel nails.

Sector specialists forecast a 1.3% recovery for 2026, raising global demand to 1.772 million tonnes. Global steel demand in 2025 is expected to remain stable compared with 2024, reaching around 1.750 million tonnes.

IPEA warns of risk

A study released by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) estimated that the 25% U.S. tariff could cause a 2.19% drop in Brazilian steel output, an 11.27% contraction in metal exports, and a 1.09% decline in imports. This means Brazil would see export losses equivalent to US$1.5 billion and an output reduction of nearly 700,000 tonnes in 2025.

“This is because the United States is a significant market for Brazilian steel. In 2024, the latest full-year data we have, they were the destination for more than half of Brazil’s exports. Therefore, it is a crucial market for Brazilian steel, which is why addressing this issue is so important,” explained Fernando Ribeiro, coordinator of International Economic Relations at Ipea and author of the study.

Despite the significant impact on the sector, the macroeconomic effect remains limited. The study forecasts a drop of only 0.01% in GDP and 0.03% in total exports, with a positive effect of US$ 390 million on the trade balance, since the decline in economic activity will also lead to lower imports (–0.26%).

Source: Diário do Vale

Executives close to the entrepreneur say they are already looking for partners to form a consortium.

Acquiring control of the new terminal will reinforce CSN’s strategy for its logistics operations. The company controls the Transnordestina Railway, which operates the former Northeast Network of the Federal Railway Company. It is one of the largest customers of the Norte-Sul Railway, the backbone line that connects the Port of Itaqui (MA) to the Port of Santos (SP).

With the complete connection of the Norte-Sul reaching São Paulo, securing control of the largest terminal in the São Paulo port will make a difference for Steinbruch’s group, which would gain two options for shipping cargo.

TCU (Federal Court of Accounts) ministers are expected to rule on the auction model proposed by Antaq (National Waterway Transport Agency) and block the participation of global giants such as Maersk and TIL (MSC) in the first round of bidding.

This would create space for new entrants and groups operating at other Brazilian ports. Under the model expected to be approved by the audit court, competitors such as Maersk and TIL would be allowed to participate only if there are no interested bidders in the first round.

Source: UOL

This was the third consecutive drop in total arrivals and in flat steel purchases in year-on-year comparisons, after seven consecutive increases. In a statement, the association said that monthly comparisons do not reflect a long-term trend and are subject to fluctuations caused by cyclical or non-recurring factors.

Aço Brasil stressed that, while the comparison of each month with the same month of the previous year shows declines in flat steel imports between August and October, as noted, the comparison of each month with the immediately preceding month shows two consecutive increases since August. In this context, it is worth noting that flat steel imports rose 12% from September to October, after growing 4.3% from August to September.

“The most relevant and worrying statistical fact for the steel industry today is that the annual increases in imported flat steel volumes are taking place on increasingly higher bases,” the institute warned.

“As disclosed at the last press conference [in August, during the Aço Brasil Congress], flat steel imports are expected to close 2025 at more than 6 million tonnes, compared with 5.3 million in 2024. This is an unprecedented volume, representing a significant share of 22.6%, versus a historical average below 10% between 2000 and 2019,” it underlined.

With October’s result, steel imports reached 5.5 million tonnes since January, an increase of 6.1% compared with the same period last year. Flat steel alone totalled 4.9 million tonnes, up 20.4%.

Origin of Arrivals

In the tenth month of 2025, Brazil imported 379.1 thousand tonnes of steel from Asia. China alone accounted for 323 thousand tonnes. Europe supplied 52 thousand tonnes, of which 29.5 thousand came from European Union (EU) countries. The two continents were the main suppliers, followed by Africa, with 34.9 thousand tonnes sold.

In the year-to-date, Asian countries have exported 4.7 million tonnes of steel to the Brazilian market, of which 3.4 million tonnes were sold by China. Shipments from European suppliers totalled 453 thousand tonnes. Purchases from the EU alone amounted to 341 thousand tonnes. Imports originating from the African continent totalled 315.9 thousand tonnes.

According to AGF investment analyst Pedro Galdi, there are rumours and expectations that the federal government may apply anti-dumping measures to curb imports. He believes this could strengthen domestic mills’ competitiveness.

Source: Diário do Comércio

Werneck said steelmakers cannot operate “in the red” much longer and are losing momentum, putting the continuity of operations in Brazil at risk. “If there is no significant reduction in the inflow of imported products into Brazil, it will be impossible for domestic steelmakers to survive. They could disappear,” he warned.

For Gerdau, Werneck said that performance in North America remains the company’s main growth driver, supported by resilient local demand.

“The reduction of imports in North America — a direct result of the protective measures adopted during the Donald Trump administration — led our total volumes to grow both quarter over quarter and year over year, with an increase of more than 10%. The North America segment also reached a record share in our results, accounting for 65% of consolidated EBITDA during the period,” he explained.

In Brazil, however, the market remains heavily affected by the surge in imported steel. “Import penetration remains above 6 million tonnes in 2025, equivalent to nearly 30% of domestic sales, underscoring the urgent need for effective trade defense measures to protect Brazil’s steel industry and local jobs,” he added.

The high level of steel imports has already led Gerdau to lay off 1,500 workers in Brazil between January and July this year and to close plants in Barão de Cocais (Minas Gerais) and Mogi das Cruzes (São Paulo). The company has also announced a 22% reduction in planned investments for next year.

Werneck noted that the company decided to announce its investment cuts early out of respect for stakeholders and to make clear its concerns about the future of operations in Brazil.

“It makes no sense to maintain high levels of investment if we don’t have a fair competitive environment. We’re not trying to pressure the government — this is simply market reality. We only invest if there are clients,” he said.

Positive outlook for 2026
Despite current difficulties, Gerdau’s outlook for 2026 remains positive. Werneck said the federal government has shown greater awareness of the issue and is taking more concrete steps to support the domestic industry. The company’s CFO, Rafael Japur, shared this view: “There’s been technical progress on the matter. The government has been visiting companies, collecting data, and conducting deeper analyses to advance investigations — something that wasn’t happening before.”

Werneck said the ideal scenario would be one where competitive conditions are restored. “Antidumping measures should reduce import levels from 30% to around 10%. That would bring back fair and balanced competition, allowing companies like ours to resume investment,” he said.

Another factor driving optimism for 2026 is the expected growth of industrial sectors — particularly automotive — and stability in the construction industry.

Gerdau’s third-quarter results
In the third quarter, Gerdau reported an adjusted net profit of R$ 1.09 billion, up 26% from the previous quarter but down 23.9% from the same period in 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA reached R$ 2.7 billion, 6.9% higher than in the second quarter but 9.2% lower than in the same quarter of 2024. Steel sales totaled 3 million tonnes, up 9.3% from the previous quarter and 9% year on year. In Brazil, sales rose 16.6% from the second quarter, driven by higher exports and domestic demand.

Source: Diário do Comércio

This marked the second consecutive monthly decline after seven straight increases. In August, imports had already fallen 24% year on year. The IABr did not comment on specific factors behind the declines.

Despite the recent drops, imports from January to September 2025 were up 9.7% compared with the same period last year, totaling 5.1 million tonnes — 4.5 million tonnes of rolled steel (up 25.8%) and 600 thousand tonnes of semi-finished steel (down 41.2%).

The accumulated import volume was the highest for the period since 2013, when Aço Brasil began its historical series. The institute forecasts that rolled steel imports alone will reach 5.3 million tonnes this year, an increase of 11.2%.

Brazilian steelmakers have urged the federal government to implement new trade defense measures, citing unfair competition from some countries, particularly China. They argue that the current tariff quota policy has been ineffective, leading to job cuts and reduced investment in the sector.

China’s share grows, South Korea’s imports surge
Steel imports from China rose 23.3% year on year in September and 25.9% in the year to date. China’s share of Brazilian imports increased in both comparisons — 59.1% in September and 61.1% for the year.

South Korea, Brazil’s second-largest supplier, also expanded its share. In September, South Korea accounted for 15% of Brazil’s steel imports, a 377.9% increase in export volume. Year to date, the country represented 11.5% of Brazil’s steel imports, up 226.7% from the previous year.

Crude steel production declines in Brazil and Minas Gerais
Brazil’s crude steel production in September fell 3.2% year on year to 2.8 million tonnes. The state of Minas Gerais accounted for 31% of total output (868 thousand tonnes) but also saw a 2.1% decline.

From January to September 2025, Brazil produced 25 million tonnes, while Minas Gerais produced 7.6 million tonnes — 30.5% of the national total. Both figures were lower than in the same period last year, down 1.7% and 1%, respectively.

Steel exports rise
According to Aço Brasil, Brazilian steel exports reached 786 thousand tonnes in September and 7.8 million tonnes from January to September. Compared with the same periods in 2024, exports rose 11.6% and 2.6%, respectively.

Domestic steel sales fell 0.6% in September to 1.9 million tonnes, but grew 0.5% year to date to 16.1 million tonnes. Apparent consumption totaled 2.3 million tonnes in September (down 5%) and 20.4 million tonnes year to date (up 4.1%), supported by higher import volumes.

Source: Diário do Comércio