The 2025\/26 orange crop in the citrus belt of S\u00e3o Paulo and Tri\u00e2ngulo\/Southwest Minas Gerais was estimated on Wednesday at 294.81 million 40.8-kg boxes, a 3.9% reduction from the previous forecast, according to a survey conducted by the Fundecitrus research fund.<\/p>\n
The lower estimate \u2014 influenced by weather and disease factors, especially greening \u2014 will reduce Brazil\u2019s expected juice supply. Brazil is the world\u2019s largest producer and exporter of the commodity, the exporters\u2019 association CitrusBR said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe two main reasons for the crop reduction are the decrease in fruit size due to lack of rain and the increase in the projected drop rate from 22% to 23%, caused by the growing severity of greening, the pace of the harvest, and weather conditions themselves,\u201d Fundecitrus stated.<\/p>\n
Even so, the crop in Brazil\u2019s central citrus-producing region, which is home to processing industries, is expected to rise 27.7% compared with the previous harvest, which had been considered the second smallest in 37 years due to poor weather and the high incidence of greening \u2014 a disease with no cure that reduces orchard productivity.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat this revised estimate shows is that dealing with weather issues is increasingly complicated. Even if a crop starts well, there is no guarantee it will develop and finish well,\u201d said CitrusBR\u2019s executive director, Ibiapaba Netto.<\/p>\n
He noted that the crop shortfall compared with the initial estimate is 20 million boxes, something \u201cquite significant because it changes the crop\u2019s scale.\u201d<\/p>\n
Asked what this means for the industry in productive terms, he said the shift alters juice availability by somewhere between 65,000 and 70,000 tonnes, depending on industrial yield.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat could help a bit would be a better industrial yield, which depends on weather\u2026 and there is no evidence that yield will offset this shortfall.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThis \u2018dries up\u2019 product availability toward the end of the cycle\u2026,\u201d Netto added.<\/p>\n
By mid-November, around 65% of the S\u00e3o Paulo and Minas Gerais crop had been harvested.<\/p>\n
Prices decline<\/strong> The surge to record price levels late last year weakened global demand, allowing ending stocks from the previous crop to recover by more than 25%, according to a September survey released by CitrusBR.<\/p>\n Despite falling prices this year \u2014 now at their lowest levels since 2022 \u2014 Brazilian orange juice exports fell 12.29% in the 2025\/26 season (July to November) to 367,000 tonnes compared with the same period a year earlier.<\/p>\n The decline is driven mainly by demand in Europe, the former largest destination for Brazilian exports, which the United States has now overtaken.<\/p>\n \u201cEurope is seeing demand drop because of last year\u2019s prices. Orange juice is a highly \u2018elastic\u2019 product \u2014 when prices rise, consumption falls\u2026,\u201d Netto said.<\/p>\n Asked whether European consumption might rebound now that prices are lower, the executive director acknowledged the possibility.<\/p>\n \u201cThe issue is the timing. Often the rebound is slower, but it does come,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In revenue terms, Brazilian orange juice exports recorded an even sharper decline, falling 25% to US$1.2 billion year-on-year, according to CitrusBR.<\/p>\n Source: Investimentos e Not\u00edcias (Com Reuters)<\/a><\/p>\n
Despite the lower projection in Brazil, frozen concentrated orange juice futures in New York were down 1.7% in early afternoon trading, at US$1.54 per pound, but remain sharply lower after last year\u2019s record high above US$5, when Brazilian orchards had a poor crop.<\/p>\n