Although it may seem significant, the volume of ethanol exported by Brazil in 2025 \u2014 around 1.7 billion liters \u2014 reflects a contraction. The figure shows a 9% drop from 2024, when foreign sales reached 2 billion liters. The decline, however, is not linked to a lack of buyers but rather to limited exportable supply, driven by strong domestic demand and historically low inventories.<\/p>\n
In value terms, Brazilian ethanol exports totaled US$ 976.6 million in 2025, down 8% from US$ 1.13 billion in 2024.<\/p>\n
Traditionally, the domestic market absorbs most of the country\u2019s ethanol production. In 2025, internal consumption reached about 19 billion liters of hydrated ethanol (sold directly at fuel pumps) and 13 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol (blended into gasoline). The mandatory blending rate for anhydrous ethanol in gasoline increased from 27% to 30% as of August 1, 2025, which is expected to further boost domestic demand. Experts estimate the new blend will consume an additional 1 billion liters per year.<\/p>\n
In addition, ethanol inventories at mills in Brazil\u2019s Center-South region fell sharply during the 2025\/2026 harvest. According to Uni\u00e3o da Ind\u00fastria de Cana-de-A\u00e7\u00facar e Bioenergia (Unica), stocks on January 1 totaled 7.07 billion liters, a 19.7% decrease compared to the same period in 2025.<\/p>\n
With national ethanol production also down by about 5%, totaling 30.84 billion liters, hydrated ethanol output dropped 8% to 19 billion liters, while anhydrous production remained relatively stable at 11.7 billion liters. Together, these factors significantly reduced the surplus available for export.<\/p>\n
International trade<\/strong><\/p>\n In international trade, South Korea remains the leading buyer of Brazilian ethanol. In 2025, the country imported 772 million liters, well ahead of the United States, which imported 255 million liters, and the Netherlands, which imported 212 million liters.<\/p>\n \u201cFor about 15 years, South Koreans have been Brazil\u2019s main customers, driven by an energy policy more open to biofuels and a preference for lower-carbon products, a characteristic of sugarcane ethanol,\u201d explained Maur\u00edcio Muruci, an ethanol, sugar, and biodiesel analyst at Safras & Mercado.<\/p>\n According to him, the ranking may change in 2026. \u201cThe Netherlands should take second place, favored by tax issues that could further reduce the United States\u2019 share,\u201d he said. The U.S. government is also considering expanding mandates for domestically produced biofuels, which could limit imports.<\/p>\n Although corn ethanol has gained ground in the domestic market in recent years, production volumes are still insufficient to significantly increase supply. In the 2025\/2026 harvest, corn accounted for 18% of national biofuel output, while sugarcane remained dominant at about 81%.<\/p>\n In absolute terms, Brazil produced roughly 2.6 billion liters of corn-based anhydrous ethanol, compared to 11.7 billion liters from sugarcane. For hydrated ethanol, corn accounted for 4.2 billion liters, versus about 19 billion liters from sugarcane.<\/p>\n Given this scenario, exports in 2026 are expected to remain limited, with a slight recovery to around 1.75 billion liters, according to Safras & Mercado. The forecast reflects the mills\u2019 strategy to focus on the domestic market, where scale is larger and prices are more attractive.<\/p>\n Sugar supports mills\u2019 cash flow<\/strong><\/p>\n In the 2025\/2026 harvest, sugar\u2019s strong performance continued to sustain mills\u2019 cash flow. In this segment, exports are more relevant than domestic sales. Each year, 30 to 33 million tonnes are shipped abroad, compared to 9.5 million tonnes consumed domestically.<\/p>\n The chart below uses Datamar’s DataLiner data to illustrate sugar shipments, measured in tonnes, from Brazil. Readers may request a demo for further insights.<\/p>\n Sugar Exports | 2023 – 2025 | WTMT<\/strong>
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