The global coffee market is entering 2026 with a shift in direction. After several years of supply deficits and tight availability, forecasts now point to a production surplus led by Brazil, amid a macroeconomic environment marked by financial and trade risks.<\/p>\n
The adjustment is unlikely to be linear. Price trends will depend on the pace at which Brazil\u2019s new crop reaches the market, the positioning of investment funds in futures markets and political and currency stability in major producing countries.<\/p>\n
The current landscape combines a softening physical market, changing export flows and demand that \u2014 despite recent inflationary pressure \u2014 remains resilient in key segments.<\/p>\n
The most significant signal comes from the projected balance for the 2026\/27 season, which is reshaping expectations formed during the recent period of scarcity.<\/p>\n
Carlos Mera and Stephen Rannekleiv, analysts at Rabobank, say they continue to base their long-term outlook on \u201ca much more comfortable balance for 2026\/27, as increased Brazilian arabica production will translate into a significant global surplus,\u201d a shift that is altering the outlook for investors and market participants.<\/p>\n
The central projection for 2026\/27 is driven by higher Brazilian production. According to Rabobank, global output could reach around 180 million bags for the first time, with an increase of 8 million bags year on year largely driven by Brazilian arabica.<\/p>\n
Rainfall in several producing regions during 2026 has so far exceeded normal levels, reinforcing expectations for a larger crop.<\/p>\n
StoneX shares a similar view. Analyst Fernando Maximiliano estimates that \u201cBrazilian production will rise 13.5% to about 77 million bags,\u201d with arabica output increasing from 36.5 million to 47.2 million bags, a gain of roughly 29%.<\/p>\n
Under that scenario, the 2026 cycle would mark the first global coffee surplus in five years, following deficits between 2021 and 2024 and a balanced market in 2025.<\/p>\n
Sucden Financial estimates a similar figure. Analysts Daria Efanova and Viktoria Kuszak project Brazil\u2019s 2026\/27 crop at about 72.5 million bags, including 47.5 million bags of arabica and 25 million bags of robusta.<\/p>\n
That would push the global balance into a surplus of between 4.7 million and 5.3 million bags, assuming stable weather and adequate robusta supply.<\/p>\n
However, the transition remains highly sensitive to climate conditions. In Brazil, regions such as southern Minas Gerais and Zona da Mata have experienced lower-than-expected rainfall and episodes of high temperatures. Recent years have also shown that the traditional biennial production cycle has become less predictable amid increasing climate variability.<\/p>\n
Outside Brazil, additional production does little to change the global market\u2019s reliance on the world\u2019s largest producer. Sucden Financial notes that \u201cBrazil remains the decisive driver of global balances,\u201d while countries such as Colombia and Ethiopia add only marginal volumes.<\/p>\n
In Colombia, climate pressure has already affected output. Germ\u00e1n Baham\u00f3n, head of the National Federation of Coffee Growers, said production in January fell 34%. Over the past 12 months, output totaled 13.2 million bags, an 8% decline.<\/p>\n
Exports since the start of the coffee year in October have reached 4.2 million bags, down 10%, although total shipments over the past 12 months amounted to 12.89 million bags.<\/p>\n
\u201cClimate conditions, exchange rates and international price volatility continue to pressure Colombian coffee production, affecting the sector\u2019s economic momentum at the end of 2025 and the start of 2026,\u201d Baham\u00f3n said.<\/p>\n
In January alone, Brazil recorded the seaborne shipment<\/b> of 7,794 containers of coffee, according to newly released data from Datamar<\/b>.<\/p>\n
The following breakdown tracks the monthly outbound volumes<\/b> of Brazilian coffee recorded since January 2023:<\/p>\n
Coffee Exports | Jan 2023 \u2013 Jan 2026 | TEUs<\/b><\/p>\n
\n