Some coffee industry experts have been drawing comparisons between the \u200bcoffee and cocoa markets, projecting that coffee prices will sink in coming months, just as cocoa prices crashed after the chocolate-making \u200cingredient hit an all-time high in 2024.<\/p>\n
Whether coffee will replicate cocoa’s downward price curve was a focus of discussions at last week’s annual convention of the National Coffee Association in Tampa, Florida.<\/p>\n
“I would be shocked if it did not happen,” said Carley Garner, senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, \u200ba division of Zaner. “I do think coffee is the new cocoa,” she said.<\/p>\n
Cocoa prices in New York hit a \u200brecord high in December 2024 at over $12,000 per ton as poor weather in producing countries squeezed supplies. But \u2060just over a year later, cocoa plummeted more than 70% as consumers cut back on high-end chocolate and chocolate makers reduced packaging size, \u200bor reformulated candy bars with cheaper alternatives to cocoa.<\/p>\n
Like cocoa, arabica coffee also rose as negative weather in the tropics hampered \u200bproduction. It hit a record high in February 2025 and stayed pricey as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs distorted coffee trade.<\/p>\n
In terms of volume, Brazil recorded seaborne shipments<\/b> totaling 7,794 containers<\/b> of coffee in January alone, according to recent Datamar<\/strong> <\/a>statistics. This figure represents a 40.3% year-on-year decline<\/b> compared to the same month in 2025.<\/p>\n The following survey tracks monthly Brazilian coffee shipments<\/b> recorded since January 2023:<\/p>\n Coffee Exports | Jan 2023 \u2013 Jan 2026 | TEUs<\/b><\/p>\n\n